KOF Economic Barometer: Less than pleasant outlook

In August, the KOF Economic Barometer fell by 4.0 points, from 90.5 (revised from 90.1) to 86.5. Since the last peak in May 2021, a downward trend has been emerging. This has now continued unabated for four months in a row.

The decline is primarily due to indicators broadly associated with private consumption, but the manufacturing sector and the construction industry are emitting negative signals, too. The other indicators included in the barometer show hardly any changes.

In the producing industry (manufacturing and construction), the situation is perceived as particularly difficult with respect to intermediary goods and the labour supply, whereas the order backlog and the present production are assessed as positive, which indicates bottlenecks in supply chains and difficulties in hiring suitable employees.

In manufacturing, it is predominantly the metal industry that is signalling a deterioration, but the electrical, the chemical and the textile industries are also reporting gloomy moods. Slightly positive signals are coming from the timber and the paper industries.