No. 134, November

The Business Situation Indicator recorded another decline in October, having previously remained practically unchanged over the summer months (see G 10). The business situation is currently significantly less positive than it was last autumn, and has been worsening for several months, in particular in the manufacturing sector. The global economic slowdown is increasingly having knock-​on effects on Switzerland.  

Economic and social globalisation is in the doldrums, whilst political globalisation is forging ahead: so say the results of the latest KOF Globalisation Index. Switzerland remains the most globalised country in the world, followed by the Netherlands and Belgium.

A boom in the cities, but stagnation in the mountains: Swiss tourism has developed very unevenly in recent years in geographical terms. A glance at the data shows that this is due to domestic tourists. The proportion of overnight stays spent by them in Swiss cities has been increasing at an above-average rate.

In 2019 and 2020, Swiss pharmaceutical exports are likely to grow slower than experts would have expected under previous conditions. This is due to a new trading model: Goods that are bought abroad and subsequently sold abroad will no longer be transported via Switzerland. As of 2020, the level of pharmaceutical exports will be around 6% lower than they would have been under the previous export model.  

In the last few years, the percentage of Swiss companies engaging in research and development has been on the decline. Moreover, the percentage of companies coming up with process and product innovations is also dropping. Measured by these indicators, Switzerland has slipped into the European mid-range when it comes to innovation.

In 2018, net immigration to Switzerland hit the lowest level in twelve years. However, this is not due to lower immigration figures but to higher emigration – including Swiss nationals. In many cases, it is young people who emigrate, but numbers among 64 and 65 year-olds are also noticeably high.