Nr. 101, November

Unlike most member countries of the European Union (EU28), Switzerland has coped very well with the Great Recession. Switzerland is better off not only in terms of overall economic development, but also in regard to the labour market situation for young people. While the KOF Youth Labour Market Index (KOF YLMI) for the EU28 decreased slightly between 2008 and 2014, the Swiss score remained nearly unchanged.

On 8 November 2016 a new President will be elected in the USA. Throughout the protracted and often controversial election campaign, questions of economic policy have only occasionally been at the forefront – in spite of the strongly divergent standpoints of the candidates. At present, opinion polls suggest that Hillary Clinton will be elected, which would result in a continuation of current economic policy. Although the election result is uncertain, the economic implications are expected to be minor.

There are a number of indications that uncertainty has a negative effect on economic development. How can this be measured? As part of a project promoted by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), the KOF calculates various uncertainty indicators for Switzerland.

In October, the KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private economy rose for the fourth consecutive time. It looks as if the recovery of the recent summer months will continue. Companies are also more confident with respect to their future development. Business expectations for the coming six months are more positive than they were in the middle of the year. The Swiss economy is carried along by a modest but steady tailwind.