No. 142, July/August

The KOF Business Tendency Surveys have revealed that Swiss companies’ fortunes hardly changed in June. KOF’s Business Situation Indicator thus confirms the stabilisation trends prevailing in the Swiss economy. The virus-induced economic freefall had already ended in the previous month. The retail sector in particular showed signs of life again in June. The Swiss economy is likely to have bottomed out for the time being.

Apprentices’ wages, additional benefits for apprentices, and the costs for firms offering apprenticeships: the authors of a new KOF Working Paper have investigated whether these dual vocational training costs are offset by the value produced by apprentices during their training. The findings of a pilot project in Nepal show that companies achieve a modest net benefit when they offer apprenticeships.

KOF has been publishing coincident and leading composite indicators for the global economy every month since January. The two Global Economic Barometers provide timely and highly frequent information. The algorithm used to construct the two barometers is run from the beginning each time. This guarantees the flexibility of the barometer system. At the current edge, the barometers have been quick to identify the economic slump that has accompanied the spread of the coronavirus.

Unemployment in Switzerland surged in the first half of the year as a result of the coronavirus crisis. Nevertheless, Switzerland has so far got off relatively lightly by international standards. Unemployment in Switzerland has risen less sharply than in the UK or Canada, for example, but slightly more than in Sweden or Germany. The example of Sweden shows that the crisis has hit the labour market hard even in cases where the authorities have not ordered a lockdown.