No. 97, June

The results of the latest KOF Investment Survey indicate a rise in total investment in 2016. According to the companies, there will be an approx. 4% expansion of investment activities this year. The results of the Spring Investment Survey 2016 thus confirm the outcome of the last survey in autumn 2015.

Rarely has an integration agreement generated as much furore as the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) which has been under negotiation for three years now. All this despite, or perhaps rather because of, the fact that the negotiations are taking place behind closed doors. In his guest article, Richard Senti*, who has recently published a book on the subject of TTIP, lists seven problematic areas and points out possible effects on third countries, such as Switzerland.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private economy has risen for the fourth consecutive time.  After a significant slowdown at the beginning of the year, the indicator has now almost retuned to the levels last seen in summer/autumn 2015

The Panel vector autoregressive model (Panel VAR) applied to figures for sales of wines at large retail outlets in Switzerland has given its first results. It is thus interesting to note some of the theoretical concepts endorsed by this approach, which results from cooperation between three members of the KOF in order to provide joint clarification of questions relating to the modelling of and forecasting concerning the Swiss wine market.

The Brexit vote will take place on 23 June 2016. Opinion polls show that the number of opponents to the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU is roughly equal to its proponents (see G 1). According to AIECE, a ‘no’ outcome is slightly more likely. Nevertheless, the referendum has already had a negative impact on the British economy. This article provides an overview of the further consequences that may arise from a Brexit not only for the UK but also for the EU and Switzerland.