No. 102, December

Following an unbroken upward trend that had lasted for months (see G 10), the KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private economy fell in November. For the time being, the improvement of the last few months has come to a halt. Despite the boost the economy gave Swiss companies in the last few months, the business environment remains difficult.

Since the surprising outcome of the US election there has been uncertainty about Trump’s future actions as president. His policies include trade negotiations with a more protectionist stance, immigration controls, tax cuts, financial deregulation, a reduced government presence in health insurance, higher spending on infrastructure, and an energy policy favouring fossil fuels. As we wait for further clarity about the implementation of his economic policy agenda, its main aspects are reviewed below.

KOF conducts quarterly surveys among economic experts from approximately 20 Swiss institutions to obtain their assessments of the country’s economic development. These assessments form the basis of the so-called KOF Consensus Forecast. Notable among them are the longer-term evaluations, for instance those on the subject of inflation.

Why businesses develop and implement new technologies – or why they don't: this question has been considered by an international team of researchers as part of the national research programme “Managing Energy Consumption”.

World trade has only been recording moderate growth in recent times. This article will consider the reasons for the lack of dynamism.

In mid-February, Swiss citizens will vote on the third corporate tax reform (CTR III). KOF researchers have investigated its impact on gross domestic product, investment, employment, consumption and tax revenue. They have found that there are positive effects for the economy despite the tax revenue shortfall generated by the reform.