No. 146, December

Globalisation increased only slightly in 2018. Although economic globalisation has recently grown, the emerging international trade conflicts have revealed their first negative effects. The coronavirus crisis is likely to further slow economic and social globalisation as a result of the worldwide recession and restricted mobility. The most globalised countries are Switzerland, the Netherlands and Belgium.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator reported a minor setback in November. After rising in October, it has recently fallen slightly (see G 17). Although coronavirus restrictions have been tightened in recent weeks, companies are currently in a better situation than they were during the summer months.

Federalism in a crisis: the theme of the next ‘KOF Beyond Borders’ event is hidden in the pun. How are various federalist states doing in combating the pandemic and its consequences? Does this crisis also reveal a crisis of federalism?

Following a sharp rise in the number of infections in the autumn, the Swiss government and the cantons have taken further measures to combat the pandemic. Both factors are likely to have contributed to the fact that Swiss people have again adjusted their consumption. This also affects the measurement of inflation, albeit not as much as during the lockdown in spring. This is illustrated by an updated comparison of the national consumer price index (LIK) with an alternative COVID price index.

The Christmas trade is of great importance for the retail sector. November and, even more so, December are usually the months that generate the highest sales of the year. KOF has therefore taken the pulse of the retail sector. Following a swift recovery in Switzerland and neighbouring countries after the slump in spring, confidence in November fell only slightly in Switzerland but plummeted in Austria.

Brexit has put the issue of independence back on the political agenda in Scotland. This publication examines what economic factors reinforce separatist tendencies. Regional resource wealth plays a central role in this context. In particular, the analysis shows that oil discoveries have a causal effect on the electoral success of Scottish separatists.