No. 155, October

Recently there have been increasing warnings of a resurgence of inflation. This paper presents the results of an empirical study of the main factors that have affected inflation over the past two decades.

With the financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis the world has experienced two severe economic crises within just over a decade. An analysis of the causes, evolution and consequences of these two economic crashes shows that the two crises could hardly be more different.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator rose in September after barely moving in the previous month (see chart G 16). Swiss companies’ business is currently predominantly encouraging; the last time it was better than at present was back in 2018. Firms are looking ahead confidently to growing their business over the coming six months. The Swiss economy is still on an upward trajectory.

In August, KOF and Switzerland’s Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper surveyed economists at Swiss universities on the subject of income and wealth inequalities and the associated ‘99 per cent Initiative’. 70 per cent of the 142 survey respondents were of the view that inequality of disposable incomes in Switzerland has increased as a result of the coronavirus crisis. More than half of them fear that income inequality will become worse in the long term.