Press Releases

In October, the KOF Economic Barometer drops noticeably. Although it is still within the medium-term average range, for the first time since January of this year it is no longer above the 100 mark. The recovery of the Swiss economy is very hesitant.

In September, the KOF Economic Barometer continues to rise, albeit only very slightly. However, this month’s small increase nevertheless confirms the much more pronounced rise in the previous month. The Swiss economy is slowly working its way out of the trough.

The economic recovery in Switzerland and internationally is sluggish. The KOF expects real sports-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 1.1% in 2024. Weak investment is holding back growth, while the pharmaceutical industry is providing a boost. Sports-adjusted GDP will in-crease by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. The main reason for the gloomy outlook is the economic weakness in Europe – for instance in Germany, Switzerland's most important trading partner.

In August, the KOF Economic Barometer rises again following a more pronounced decline in the previous month. The Barometer remains slightly above its medium-term average. The Swiss economy is on a hesitant recovery path.

KOF is forecasting an increase of 1.2 per cent in real sport-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) for the current year (1.6 per cent including sporting events). Sport-adjusted growth of 1.8 per cent is expected for 2025 (1.4 per cent including sporting events). KOF’s economic outlook is therefore virtually unchanged compared with its spring forecast.

The KOF Economic Barometer falls slightly in March and now stands at 101.5 points. The Barometer had recorded repeated increases since mid 2023 and is now stabilizing above its long-term average. The outlook for the Swiss economy therefore remains positive.

In February, the KOF Economic Barometer decreases slightly after having risen three times in a row. On the back of these previous increases, the Barometer remains above average. Despite the slight cooling, the rather positive economic signals in Switzerland remain intact.

The KOF Economic Barometer remains virtually unchanged in September and now stands at 93.8 points, coming from a revised 93.5 points in August. However, the barometer remains below its long-term average. The barometer, which has been weakening in recent months, augurs a cooling of the Swiss economy for the end of 2022.

The Business Situation Indicator for Swiss companies fell slightly in July. However, it is still higher than it was at the beginning of this year, and the last time the situation was more encouraging than at present was in July 2011. However, firms are much less optimistic than before about their business prospects for the coming six months. The headwinds facing the Swiss economy are likely to strengthen in the near future.

The KOF Economic Barometer declines in May and now stands at 96.8 points. The barometer is thus now below its long-term average. The Swiss economy is thus likely to develop moderately over the next few months.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for firms in Switzerland rose in April, reaching its highest level since recovering from the financial crisis in 2010/2011. As far as developments in the near future are concerned, however, companies are more cautious than they have been in recent months. The positive impact of the Swiss economy’s recovery from the pandemic is outweighing the adverse effects of the war in Ukraine.

After dipping below the long-term average in March, the KOF Economic Barometer rises in April again. The opportunities for parts of the economy due to the recovery from the pandemic are currently dominating the strains from the international environment.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell by 5.6 points in March and now stands at 99.7. This is just slightly below its long-term average. The recovery from the economic consequences of the pandemic is now overshadowed by the war in Ukraine. Overall, a moderate development of the Swiss economy can be expected for the near future.

According to KOF’s economic forecast, the Swiss economy will grow by just under 3 per cent this year – but only in the favourable scenario. If the Ukraine crisis spreads and all Russian energy and commodity exports to the EU and other regions are discontinued, the Russian trade in oil is withdrawn from Switzerland and the Swiss franc appreciates significantly, GDP growth of only 1 per cent would remain in 2022.

The deteriorating epidemiological situation in Switzerland and throughout Europe has forced KOF to revise its economic forecast downwards. Under its baseline scenario, KOF expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 3.4 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2022. KOF is forecasting that an economic recovery will begin in the spring.

The KOF Economic Barometer moves one step further towards its long-term average shortly before the end of the year. The high-flying of the barometer, which was observed in the middle of the year, is being cushioned by a further corrective movement. However, the barometer remains above its long-term average. The prospects for the Swiss economy remain positive, given that economic activity is not impaired by a recurring spread of the virus.

Swiss companies’ business situation continues to improve, according to the KOF Business Tendency Surveys for October. The gap that had widened between sectors as a result of the pandemic is closing to some extent. In addition to problems with supplies of intermediate products, however, many sectors are complaining about a shortage of skilled workers.

The KOF Economic Barometer remains virtually unchanged in October. After repeated weakenings from a historically high level in the summer of this year, the Barometer has stabilised for the time being at 110.7 points. It is thus once again well above its long-term average. The prospects for the Swiss economy until the end of 2021 remain positive, given that the containment of the virus continues.

The Swiss economy is performing well, but its rate of growth will have returned to normal by the end of 2023. Gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 3.2 per cent in 2021 and by 3.6 per cent in 2022. Output is likely to have returned to its pre-crisis growth path by 2023.

In August, the KOF Economic Barometer fell from its all-time high in May for the third time in a row and now stands at 113.5 points. However, this is still significantly higher than the long-term average. Accordingly, in the coming months the economic recovery from the consequences of the pandemic is expected to continue.

In July, the KOF Economic Barometer falls further below its May peak. Despite this second decline in a row, the barometer level is clearly above the long-term average. The economy is still on a strong expansion path, although the high pace of recent months may not to be sustained.

The recovery of the Swiss economy is progressing in leaps and bounds. The upward trend in the Business Situation Indicator, which has been ongoing since the beginning of the year, continued at an accelerated pace in April. Firms are also much more confident about developments over the coming months than they were in the previous month and at the beginning of this year. However, the availability of intermediate products is becoming a growing concern for companies.

The KOF Economic Barometer rose to 117.8 points in March and now is as high as it was last in summer 2010.The Barometer thus signals a rapid economic recovery for the coming months.

Having risen at the end of 2020, the KOF Business Situation Indicator fell in January. The second wave of the pandemic is clearly acting as a drag on some sectors. The proportion of companies that consider their survival to be at risk increases strongly in the hospitality sector. More than half of businesses in the hospitality industry are worried about possible bankruptcy. KOF expects to see a GDP growth of 2.1 per cent this year but no return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2021.

The KOF Economic Barometer drops considerably in January. For the first time since July last year, it falls below its long-term average. After reaching an interim pandemic high in September, COVID-19 is now weighing more heavily on the economy again. The pandemic is causing gloomy economic prospects at the beginning of the year.

The KOF Economic Barometer declines in November for the second time in a row, after a brief recovery in the summer. The barometer currently stands at 103.5 points, 2.8 points lower than in October (revised from 106.6 to 106.3 points). The barometer is thus moving towards its long-term average, which means that the outlook for the Swiss economy remains subdued also in view of the current pandemic situation.

The KOF Economic Barometer falls in October for the first time after a brief recovery phase. It now stands at 106.6 points, 3.5 points lower than in September (revised from 113.8 to 110.1 points). The economic outlook for Switzerland is subdued in view of the pandemic situation and the restrictions that are likely to result from it.

As expected by KOF, the Swiss economy experienced a deep red 2nd quarter, even if the slump was less severe by international standards. However, the situation is very uneven between and within the individual sectors. The consequences of the crisis are also clearly evident in the labour market - the low point has probably not yet been reached. KOF is leaving its forecast for GDP growth in 2020 almost unchanged at -4.7%. In 2021, it expects a plus of 3.7%.

Between March and July of this year, 21 per cent fewer companies in Switzerland went bankrupt than in the same period of last year. The support measures taken during the coronavirus crisis are likely to play an important role in this regard. It is still too early to sound the all-clear, however, as some bankruptcies have probably only been postponed. Bankruptcies have tended to increase gradually after previous economic crises as well.

The business situation in most sectors has improved slightly. This is shown by the KOF Business Situation Indicator, which has risen significantly for the first time since April. However, the situation remains challenging. 14 per cent of companies believe that their survival is at risk. In terms of economic performance, KOF expects GDP to decline by 4.9 per cent this year. If a second wave of COVID-19 were to occur, GDP would be expected to fall by 6 per cent this year.

In the third quarter of 2020 the KOF Employment Indicator is recovering slightly from its historic slump in the second quarter. Despite the lifting of the lockdown, however, the indicator remains clearly in negative territory at -12.9 points. In industry and the hospitality sector the outlook is almost as bad as it was three months ago. Further job cuts are expected in the coming months.

The KOF Economic Barometer increases significantly in June. After the sharp declines of the last three months, the barometer is thus rising again for the first time. However, with a value comparable to April, the barometer is still considerably below its long-term average. As a result, the prospects of the Swiss economy are very subdued, but brightening up somewhat compared to the previous months.

In April, the business situation slowed down again. The Business Situation Indicator declined for the fifth consecutive month. With the exception of construction and project engineering sectors, all other sectors have been struggling to sustain their business situation since the beginning of 2019. However, the companies’ expectations for the next six months have not deteriorated any further and are moderately confident. Nevertheless, Swiss economy is facing a difficult environment.

The KOF Economic Barometer starts in 2019 with 95 points. It has fallen for the fourth time in a row and is now 5 points below its long-term average. The downward tendency that emerged at the end of last year continues. The economic outlook for Switzerland continues to dampen at the beginning of 2019

The Swiss economy is booming. Gross domestic product (GDP) for this year is set to rise by an impressive 2.9 per cent. International economic activity is providing a positive stimulus, and the domestic economy is boosting business activity as well. Unemployment is also set to fall as a result of the strong economy. KOF expects the rate of growth to slow slightly to 1.7 per cent next year before GDP growth will likely rebound to 2.1 per cent in 2020.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator edged back up in April after having dipped slightly in the previous month. Overall, therefore, the Indicator has stabilised around the highest level it has reached since 2014. The Swiss economy’s upward trajectory is intact.

The Swiss economy is currently on an upward trajectory. This year it will achieve a relatively high GDP growth rate of 2.5%, and KOF is forecasting fairly robust growth of 1.8% for 2019. However, some of this increase is attributable to license fees received from sporting events, which have little to do with the actual performance of the Swiss economy. The labour market is doing well, with unemployment falling slightly. Inflation is gradually moving into positive territory.

In February 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer rose by 0.4 points to a new reading of 108.0. After the previous month’s decline, it thus stabilised its position on a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that in the near future the Swiss economy should continue to grow at rates above average.

Companies in Switzerland plan to increase their investment activities by some eight percent in 2018. Specifically, they want to increase not only their capital investments, but their expansion investments as well. This trend reflects the current health of the Swiss economy. These findings and more are the results of the KOF’s latest investment survey.