No. 145, November

The number of international tourist arrivals in the first eight months of this year was 70 per cent lower than it had been before the coronavirus crisis. Although demand in Europe partially recovered during the summer months, rising infection rates are slowing down this recovery. However, Switzerland is not in a bad position when compared internationally: thanks to the strength of its domestic tourism, it has lost fewer overnight stays than other countries.

Is the coronavirus crisis overshadowing the climate debate or is it playing into its hands? KOF’s forecasting conference on 22 October saw representatives from the worlds of business, politics and science discuss in a webinar how lost profits can affect green investment and what significance Swiss climate policy has internationally.

The clock is ticking. If the EU and the UK fail to sign an agreement by the end of December, a no-deal Brexit will become a reality – with drastic consequences for the British. It is estimated that, by 2030, UK GDP would be 2.5 per cent lower than if the withdrawal followed an orderly process and 5.3 per cent lower than without Brexit altogether. Long-term adjustments would not take place for 15 years.

Companies’ business has recently improved noticeably. While the situation in the retail sector is now more encouraging than it has been since 2014, it has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels in many other areas. When asked about their plans for the future, however, companies in some sectors of the economy became more cautious over the course of October.

The coronavirus-specific questions asked in the October Business Tendency Surveys revealed that around 10 per cent of the firms surveyed said that they considered their survival to be at risk. In the hospitality industry this figure is as high as one in three companies, which is also where the pandemic will have the greatest impact on annual sales. In general, smaller firms are more afraid of bankruptcy than larger ones, and there are also regional differences.

After the labour market had deteriorated sharply in the spring, it recovered over the summer - thanks in particular to short-time working. However, the outlook for the winter suggests that a second wave of unemployment is to be expected. The increase in nominal wages next year is likely to be the lowest in 80 years.