Press Releases

The economic recovery in Switzerland and internationally is sluggish. The KOF expects real sports-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 1.1% in 2024. Weak investment is holding back growth, while the pharmaceutical industry is providing a boost. Sports-adjusted GDP will in-crease by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. The main reason for the gloomy outlook is the economic weakness in Europe – for instance in Germany, Switzerland's most important trading partner.

The Global Barometers reverse the previous month’s decline and continue the tendency of relative stability observed in recent months. The Leading Barometer remains above the neutral level of 100 points despite having lost ground earlier this year. The Coincident Barometer, in turn, has remained stable in a narrow band around 94 points since the beginning of the year.

For 2024, KOF is forecasting a 1.2 per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events. The sluggish global economy and declining investment in particular are slowing the growth of the Swiss economy. The outlook for 2025 is more positive, with a growth rate of 1.8 per cent in sport-adjusted GDP being forecast.

The Global Barometers continue to increase, signalling an acceleration in world economic growth at the turn of the year. However, despite the seventh consecutive rise, the Coincident Barometer remains below its average of 100 points. The Leading Barometer reaches its highest level since 2021.

The Swiss economy is currently characterised by two opposing trends. On the one hand, private consumption and the robust labour market are supporting the domestic economy. On the other, the weakness of the global economy is weighing on the export-driven Swiss economy. All in all, KOF expects real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for major sporting events, to increase by 1.2 per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year.

In August, the Global Barometers increase for the second month in a row across the regions. The Coincident Barometer continues to slowly improve in 2023 while the Leading Barometer advances more rapidly, approaching almost the neutral level of 100 points.  

KOF is forecasting that Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.3 per cent this year. Under its baseline scenario KOF expects real gross domestic product adjusted for sporting events to rise by 1 per cent next year. Uncertainty about gas supplies during the winter has increased sharply throughout Europe. KOF’s baseline scenario assumes, however, that there will be no formal rationing on a major scale here.

The Global Barometers overall continue to signal a strong deceleration in world economic growth in 2022. In July, the Coincident Barometer declines for the sixth consecutive month, while the Leading Barometer continues to be 10 points below the historical mean of 100 points. The results reflect a gloomy outlook for global economic growth in the coming months.

The Global Barometers fall for the second consecutive month, reflecting negative factors such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, the COVID-19 responses in China and the worldwide very high inflation. The Coincident Barometer remains below the historical mean of 100 points, while the Leading Barometer drops further from the mean, reflecting the increased risk of a more pronounced slowdown in several countries.

The German economy is steering through difficult waters and faces the highest inflation rates in decades. In their spring report, the leading German economic research institutes revise their outlook for this year significantly downward. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute is part of the Joint Economic Forecast as a consortium partner of the ifo Institute, Munich. The recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is slowing down as a result of the war in Ukraine, but remains on track.

According to KOF’s economic forecast, the Swiss economy will grow by just under 3 per cent this year – but only in the favourable scenario. If the Ukraine crisis spreads and all Russian energy and commodity exports to the EU and other regions are discontinued, the Russian trade in oil is withdrawn from Switzerland and the Swiss franc appreciates significantly, GDP growth of only 1 per cent would remain in 2022.

The Coincident Global Barometer keeps the upward tendency and reaches its highest historical level in June. Moving in the opposite direction the Leading Barometer decreases, but after having risen markedly in the three previous months.

Following a succession of decreases that drove the Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers down to their lowest level in history last month, the indicators are showing the first signs of recuperation since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. There remains a great uncertainty, but the modest movement of June may signal that the world economy is entering a phase of gradual recovery.  

The Coincident and Leading Barometers for the Global Economy for May demonstrate a deepening of the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. After the third and so far most significant of these three declines, the two indicators reached the lowest levels of their respective series since their beginning in 1991. This signals an unprecedented impact of the pandemic on World GDP for the second quarter of 2020.

The eurozone economy will experience a slight dip in the second quarter of the year. Growth is expected to fall to 0.3 percent, from 0.4 percent in the first quarter, according to three research institutes: ifo in Munich, KOF in Zurich, and Istat in Rome. They expect growth in each of the third and fourth quarters to return to 0.4 percent.

Economic growth in the euro area will be weak this year. After 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, it will only reach 0.3 percent in the following quarters. This is forecasted by the three institutes ifo from Munich, KOF from Zurich and Istat from Rome.

Economic activity in the euro area is slowing down. In Q42018 and the first two quarters of 2019, the economy is only expected to grow by 0.3 percent respectively, according to the latest forecast by the three research institutes ifo (Munich), KOF (Zurich) and Istat (Rome).

The upturn in the euro area will continue this year, albeit at a slower pace than in 2017. The risks to the economy have grown, according to the three institutes ifo (Munich), KOF (Zurich) and Istat (Rome).

Germany’s leading economic experts and their international cooperation partners raised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019 for the German economy slightly in their Spring Joint Economic Forecast released on Thursday in Berlin. They now expect economic growth of 2.2 per cent for this year and 2.0 per cent for 2019, versus 2.0 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively in their autumn forecast.

The Swiss economy is currently on an upward trajectory. This year it will achieve a relatively high GDP growth rate of 2.5%, and KOF is forecasting fairly robust growth of 1.8% for 2019. However, some of this increase is attributable to license fees received from sporting events, which have little to do with the actual performance of the Swiss economy. The labour market is doing well, with unemployment falling slightly. Inflation is gradually moving into positive territory.

Robust economic growth of 0.6 percent can be expected in the first and second quarters of 2018, according to the ifo Institute (Munich), KOF (Zurich) and Istat (Rome). Growth will slow down marginally to 0.5 percent in the third quarter. The key drivers are investments, which will benefit from low interest rates, and rising capacity utilisation rates.

The economy in the euro area grows strongly. The ifo Institute (Munich), ISTAT (Rome) and KOF (Zurich) expect to see respective growth rates of 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent in the first and second quarters of 2018.