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Inflation rates have risen significantly over the past year. In the United States in particular, inflation is increasingly becoming a problem to which the Federal Reserve (Fed) must respond. Inflation has also risen sharply in the euro area. In Switzerland, the situation is still somewhat less serious.

Intermediate products such as semiconductors and some raw materials are currently highly in demand among firms. Strong consumer demand for end-products and the resulting high levels of output, as well as friction in the supply and transportation of intermediate products, are causing the latter to become scarce and more expensive. In addition, however, companies’ strong orders of intermediate products could exacerbate this shortage. There are certain indications of this in Switzerland.

The turbulent history of the Swiss franc since the outbreak of the financial crisis has increasingly raised the question as to where the point of equilibrium is for the Swiss franc exchange rate. Although there cannot be any absolute point of equilibrium, attempts have nonetheless been made to assess the mispricing of the Swiss franc using the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model.

In 2019 and 2020, Swiss pharmaceutical exports are likely to grow slower than experts would have expected under previous conditions. This is due to a new trading model: Goods that are bought abroad and subsequently sold abroad will no longer be transported via Switzerland. As of 2020, the level of pharmaceutical exports will be around 6% lower than they would have been under the previous export model.  

Swiss exports reached a high water mark in 2018. Exports rose significantly for the most important categories of goods. However, the position becomes slightly more nuanced when considered more closely: during the second half of the year the dynamism fell back, above all in the machinery, electronics and metal industry.  

Nighttime lights data captured by satellites can provide useful information regarding the current economic activity across countries and regions, and also for the prediction of future developments. In a recently published KOF Working Paper, Jaqueson K. Galimberti presents his latest research and promising results favouring the use of this innovative source of data for macroeconomic measurement and forecasting.