News

Researchers at the annual conference of the Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) discussed the latest societal challenges from an economic perspective – from climate change and trade disputes to the spread of artificial intelligence.

The KOF business situation in the Swiss private sector brightened in June for the second month in a row. Companies are also more confident about developments over the next six months than they have been for the past two months. The Swiss economy is slowly emerging from the trough.

In this interview, KOF directors Jan-Egbert Sturm and Hans Gersbach look back on 2024, analyse the state of the global economy and discuss the major challenges in 2025.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector showed a noticeably positive trend in May for the first time this year. Even though the business situation is currently much less favorable than at the beginning of the year. Business expectations for the coming six months are more confident than in the previous month. Despite the smouldering trade conflicts, Swiss companies breathed a sigh of relief in May.

After the 2024/25 winter season recorded an all-time high, summer is also likely to see a slight increase. KOF’s latest forecast for Swiss tourism expects the number of overnight stays to rise by 0.7 per cent to a total of 21 million. Guests from overseas markets in particular will contribute to this trend. The high level of overnight stays is likely to be maintained and even increase slightly (up 0.5 per cent) during the coming winter season.

The AIECE Association of European Economic Research Institutes expects weak global economic growth due to trade disputes and geopolitical conflicts. The economists recommend that EU member states invest more in sustainability, digital infrastructure, and strategic sectors.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector fell in March for the first time this year. Firms’ business forecasts for the coming half-year cooled for the second month in a row. The headwinds facing the Swiss economy are increasing.

The head of the KOF Research Division Swiss Labour Market was appointed professor by the ETH Board today.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator moved minimally upwards in February, having previously fallen for two months in a row. Companies are once again becoming slightly more cautious in their business expectations. The Swiss economy was tensely calm in February.

Wildfires can cause large economic, social, and ecological disruptions. A recent study with the participation of KOF analyses how financial markets react to increasing wildfire risks and how this influences the public finances of affected communities.  

At the KOF Economic Forum, Stefan Brupbacher (Swissmem), Benno Keller (Switzerland Global Enterprise) and Hans Gersbach (KOF) discussed the question ‘Geopolitical tensions and bloc formations: does Switzerland need to realign itself?’. Moderated by Sina Freiermuth (SRF), an exciting debate developed on a highly topical subject.

If Donald Trump prevails in the US presidential election on 5 November and introduces the announced trade tariffs, this would lead to global economic losses. The USA itself would suffer the most. However, according to KOF calculations, the Swiss would also be substantially affected with costs of at least CHF 200 per capita per year.

The Swiss tourism sector will continue to grow during the winter season. According to the KOF Tourism Forecast, Swiss guests and travellers from overseas markets such as the US will be the main drivers of the increase in overnight stays.

Martin Wörter is a new member of the Editorial Review Board of the Academy of Management Journal. The journal is one of the most renowned in the field of management.

Following a record winter, Swiss tourism will continue to grow this summer. KOF expects overnight stays to increase by 0.4 per cent. The main reasons for this are the brighter outlook for the global economy, rising demand from overseas markets, and stable domestic demand. While the trend in the numbers of guests coming from Europe remains subdued, visitors from the United States and China in particular are providing a boost.

Beim KOF Wirtschaftsforum diskutierten UBS-Chefökonom Daniel Kalt, Preisüberwacher Stefan Meierhans und Hans Gersbach, Co-Direktor der KOF, über die Entwicklung von Konjunktur, Zinsen und Preisen sowie über Zukunftsszenarien für unser Geldsystem. Moderiert wurde die Veranstaltung von Sylvia Walter, Redaktorin bei Finanz und Wirtschaft.

KOF is forecasting an increase of 270,000 overnight stays for the coming winter. This growth will be driven by both domestic and overseas guests. KOF expects to see a slight decline in overnight stays in the summer of 2024.

The long-serving president of the KOF's Sponsoring Association, Ueli Dietiker, has resigned. His successor is Stefan Nünlist. In addition, two new members were elected to the Executive Board of the SGK.

The tourism industry in Switzerland has managed to overcome the pandemic-related disruption and will continue to grow during the 2023 tourism year, according to KOF’s forecast. The domestic tourism sector is proving robust in the face of the slowdown in the global economy.

Hans Gersbach, Professor of Macroeconomics at the ETH Zurich and Co-Director of the KOF, will be a member of the expert group on "Banking Stability" convened by the Federal Department of Finance (FDF). This group is to review the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS and evaluate the "too big to fail" regulations.

The recovery and emergency plans of the "too-big-to-fail" provisions cannot be implemented by FINMA without major disruptions. There are three main reasons for this: First, the plans involve the jurisdictions of different countries, and the "single point of entry" procedure is not sufficiently accepted politically. Second, the recovery and emergency plans cannot safely contain the contagion dynamics of a failing bank. Third, they are difficult to implement in practice.

Vor drei Jahren wurde in der Schweiz der Corona-Notstand ausgerufen. Aus diesem Anlass ziehen Forschende der KOF Bilanz und analysieren, welche Schlüsse sich aus den Pandemie-Jahren ziehen lassen.

KOF is pleased to welcome Professor Hans Gersbach as a new member of its Directorate. Gersbach and Professor Jan-Egbert Sturm form the new top management of KOF.

KOF’s Tourism Forecast concludes that Swiss tourism is on the road to recovery. While the summer season got off to a good start, tourism in winter should maintain this momentum and exceed pre-pandemic levels. The total number of overnight stays during the 2022 winter season will increase by almost 2.4 million (up 16 per cent).

Many analysts consider two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP to be a recession. But the latest US GDP numbers give conflicting signals.

This year’s KOF Tourism Forecast is characterised by several one-off effects. For example, the Omicron wave of COVID-19 slowed the rapid recovery of the tourism sector during the winter. There are currently fewer guests from eastern Europe as a result of the war in Ukraine. In addition, the weakening of the global economy is expected to have a negative impact on tourism demand. Despite all of this, the recovery that began after the pandemic will continue and will generate growth.

Economists, financial analysts and public institutions such as central banks all rely on economic data that is as up-to-date as possible for their calculations.The KOF Nowcasting Lab provides these players with daily calculations of gross domestic product in the major European countries.

Together with the Federal Statistical Office, KOF is making central economic data for Switzerland available on opendata.swiss. An important step for economic research and teaching in Switzerland.

Do foreign workers compete with domestic employees and put pressure on their wages? Or are companies dependent on immigrants to be able to grow? Researchers from KOF have examined these questions. Watch the video for the most important answers.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy is changing faster than usual. To capture these changes, a group of researchers has developed a set of economic indicators based on Google search trends.

Ursula Renold has been appointed Full Professor of Education Systems by the ETH Board. This was decided by the Board at its meeting on 11-12 December 2019. She will take up her new position on 1 January 2020.

Since January, KOF is associate partner of Econ Pol Europe. Econ Pol is a network of 14 policy-oriented university and non-university research institutes across 12 countries. These institutes contribute scientific expertise to the discussion of the future design of the European Union

Stefan Pichler, PostDoc at the Chair of Applied Macroeconomics (KOF, D-MTEC), received the “Scientific Award 2018” from the German Society for Health Economics dggö (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie e.V.).

Dr Martin Wörter was awarded the title of professor by the ETH Board at its meeting of 13/14 December 2017 in response to the proposals received from the President of ETH Zurich, Prof Lino Guzzella.

The project analyses how Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) can improve the income of the youth in low- and middle-income countries.

On 24th and 25th of November, the 82nd Euroconstruct will take place in Barcelona. At the conference, the current macroeconomic developments in Europe as well as the challenges of the European construction sector will be discussed.

Together with Balsillie School of International Affairs, the Laurier Centre for Economic Research & Policy Analysis (LCERPA) and the University of Auckland, KOF is organising a workshop on “The Economics of Central Banking”.

Stefan Pichler of KOF Swiss Economic Institute and his colleagues Metin Akyol and Michael Neugart win the "EALE Labour Economics Prize" for the best paper published in Labour Economics during 2015.

CIRET, the Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys hosted at KOF, has relaunched its OECD journal under a new name. From now on it will be published with Springer under the name "Journal of Business Cycle Research".

Die NZZ hat ihr neues Ökonomen-Ranking veröffentlicht, das sich aus den Kategorien «Forschung», «Medien» und «Politik» zusammensetzt. Angeführt wird die Rangliste von Verhaltensökonom Ernst Fehr (Universität Zürich), gefolgt von Politikökonom Reiner Eichenberger (Universität Fribourg). An dritter Stelle steht Jan-Egbert Sturm, der in den Kategorien «Forschung» und «Medien-Zitate» auftrumpfen konnte.