Press Releases

For the second consecutive month, the Coincident and Leading Barometers rise in July. However, they have not yet recovered the losses incurred between March and May. Despite these increases, the indicators continue to suggest that the global economic growth rate will remain modest in 2025.

The KOF Economic Barometer decreases in June. After a moderate increase in the previous month, it now falls to its lowest level so far this year. The outlook for the Swiss economy deteriorates.

The United States’ erratic trade policy has caused even more economic uncertainty in the second quarter of 2025. Tariffs are also weighing on the economic outlook. Data revisions last year mean that KOF is sticking to its forecast of real, sport-adjusted GDP growth of 1.4 per cent for 2025 (1.0 per cent unadjusted) despite a deterioration in its assessment. Its GDP growth forecast for 2026, however, has been lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 1.5 per cent (1.9 per cent unadjusted).

The Coincident and Leading Barometers rise slightly in June, breaking a sequence of three consecutive declines. However, the outlook for global economic growth remains lower in the first half of the year than expected at the beginning of the year.

The KOF MPC figure for 5 June 2025 is -0.12. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.

The KOF Economic Barometer increases in May. After decreasing in the previous month, it remains below its medium-term average. Despite the rise in the KOF Economic Barometer, the outlook for the Swiss Economy remains subdued.

The Coincident and Leading Barometers decrease for the third consecutive month. This time more markedly, reflecting rising uncertainty due to escalating trade tensions and the prospect of slower growth in several regions.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the private sector in Switzerland, which is calculated based on KOF’s Business Tendency Surveys, fell again in April, recording its third consecutive decline. Firms’ business expectations for the next six months show a similar pattern: forecasts are being adjusted downwards for the third month in a row.

The KOF Employment Indicator has fallen again in the second quarter of 2025 and is now at its lowest level since the beginning of 2021, when the Swiss labour market was still being affected by the COVID pandemic. The Swiss labour market is expected to see subdued growth in both the current quarter and the next.

The KOF Economic Barometer falls strongly in April. After an increase in the previous month, it now drops below its medium-term average for the first time this year. The outlook for the Swiss Economy is considerably subdued.

The KOF MPC figure for 17 April 2025 is -0.18. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.

Since the new U.S. administration took office, geopolitical risks and international trade conflicts have significantly intensified. KOF has examined the risks and possible consequences for the Swiss economy. The findings show: trade conflicts can lead to declines in Swiss gross domestic product (GDP), ranging from fractions of a percent to over one percent per year on a sustained basis. In the case of severe and prolonged trade conflicts, the economy could fall into a recession.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises in March after a decline in the previous month. It continues to remain above its medium-term average since the beginning of the year. The outlook for the Swiss Economy remains robust.

Uncertainty is currently unusually high owing to the geopolitical strategy of the new US administration. Assuming that the international trade conflict does not escalate any further, KOF is forecasting that real sport-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 1.4 per cent in 2025. Although this international trade conflict is a burden, the fiscal stimulus expected in individual EU countries is boosting economic activity. KOF is predicting GDP growth of 1.9 per cent for 2026.  

In March, the coincident and leading Global Barometers show diverging movements. While the Coincident Barometer declines after a slight increase last month, the Leading Barometer rises for the second month in a row.

The KOF MPC figure for 6 March 2025 is 0.05. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.

In February, the KOF Economic Barometer decreases. After an increase in the previous months, it remains above its medium-term average. While faced with headwinds, the Swiss Economy shows a robust outlook.

The Global Barometers increase slightly in February, partially recovering the losses of the previous month. The results indicate a possible consolidation of these levels for the indicators, after an upward tendency was indicated at the end of 2024.   

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated on the basis of the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell in January. It had previously risen in October and November last year and remained virtually unchanged in December. Business expectations for the next six months were once again slightly more cautious in January than they had been in December.

The KOF Employment Indicator has fallen slightly in the first quarter of 2025 compared with last quarter. This decline is primarily due to the worsening employment prospects in the retail and manufacturing sectors. Overall, the Swiss labour market is expected to remain subdued this quarter and next.

The KOF MPC figure for 30 January 2025 is 0.17. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.

The KOF Economic Barometer increases in January. After a decline in the previous month, it rises slightly to the above-average range. The outlook for the Swiss economy improves somewhat at the beginning of the year.

The decrease in the Global Barometers in January suggests a pullback after the rise recorded in the last quarter of 2024. With the decline, the Coincident Barometer is moving away from the 100-point mark. However, the Leading Barometer remains above 100 points, indicating a continued positive outlook for the performance of the world economy in the first half of 2025.

The KOF Economic Barometer decreases in December. After an increase in the previous month, it now falls slightly below its medium-term average. The outlook for the Swiss Economy has dampened.

Assessments of the outlook for the Swiss economy have deteriorated slightly compared with the autumn forecast. KOF is slightly revising downwards its forecasts. It expects real gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events to increase by 0.9 per cent in 2024. Sport-adjusted GDP will grow by 1.4 per cent in 2025 and by 1.7 per cent in 2026. The main reason for these downward revisions is the sluggish performance of the international environment – particularly in Germany and France.

The KOF MPC figure for 12 December 2024 is 0.14. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.

Global interdependencies are gradually recovering, as the KOF Globalisation Index for 2022 shows. Globalisation is returning to its pre-COVID-19 pandemic level. Economic globalisation in particular has provided a boost here, while social and political globalisation continue to suffer from the after-effects of the pandemic. The most globalised country is the Netherlands, followed by Switzerland and Belgium.

The Global Barometers remain relatively stable in December, after the noticeably increases recorded in the previous month. The Coincident Barometer slips slightly in relation to November, but ends the quarter at a more favourable level than the previous quarter, signalling overall an acceleration in global economic growth. The Leading Barometer, in turn, increases this month and suggests an increase in confidence among companies and consumers in relation to the end of the previous quarter.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises in November. After falling below the 100 mark in October for the first time since January, the KOF Economic Barometer reaches the 100 mark again this month. The Swiss economy develops steadily albeit without strong dynamics.

Healthcare spending in Switzerland continues to grow. KOF expects this expenditure to rise from CHF 95 billion in 2023 to over CHF 106 billion in 2026, with per-capita healthcare expenditure likely to reach almost CHF 11,600 by the end of 2026. And the importance of the healthcare sector in terms of GDP will also continue to increase. These are the key findings of KOF’s health expenditure forecast, which was compiled with the help of a research contribution from comparis.ch.

After remaining practically stable for most of the year, the Global Barometers increase more markedly in November. The region Asia, Pacific & Africa stands out in the development of the Coincident barometer, which records its highest level since April 2022.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated on the basis of KOF’s Business Tendency Surveys, rose slightly in October. This offsets some of its decline in September. Overall, this indicator has been moving sideways – with minor fluctuations – since this spring. These sectoral trends vary so widely that no broad-based momentum can develop.

The current level of the KOF Employment Indicator is virtually unchanged compared with last quarter. There are hardly any changes in the individual sectors either. The indicator value suggests that employment in Switzerland will continue to perform well over the coming months.

In October, the KOF Economic Barometer drops noticeably. Although it is still within the medium-term average range, for the first time since January of this year it is no longer above the 100 mark. The recovery of the Swiss economy is very hesitant.

The KOF MPC figure for 17 October 2024 is 0.06. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.

The Global Barometers record a small increase in October, largely offsetting the previous month’s decline. The Coincident Barometer continues to signal economic development below the medium-term average, while the leading barometer continues to point to a normalisation of growth in the coming months. 

In September, the KOF Economic Barometer continues to rise, albeit only very slightly. However, this month’s small increase nevertheless confirms the much more pronounced rise in the previous month. The Swiss economy is slowly working its way out of the trough.

The economic recovery in Switzerland and internationally is sluggish. The KOF expects real sports-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 1.1% in 2024. Weak investment is holding back growth, while the pharmaceutical industry is providing a boost. Sports-adjusted GDP will in-crease by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. The main reason for the gloomy outlook is the economic weakness in Europe – for instance in Germany, Switzerland's most important trading partner.

The KOF MPC figure for 12 September 2024 is 0.14. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.

The Global Barometers record a decline, but overall they are still in line with the tendency towards relative stability observed over the course of this year. The decline brings the Leading Barometer closer to the neutral level of 100 points, while the Coincident Barometer is moving away from this band.

In August, the KOF Economic Barometer rises again following a more pronounced decline in the previous month. The Barometer remains slightly above its medium-term average. The Swiss economy is on a hesitant recovery path.

The Global Barometers reverse the previous month’s decline and continue the tendency of relative stability observed in recent months. The Leading Barometer remains above the neutral level of 100 points despite having lost ground earlier this year. The Coincident Barometer, in turn, has remained stable in a narrow band around 94 points since the beginning of the year.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated based on the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, rose slightly in July. However, the indicator had fallen even more sharply in the previous month. Nonetheless, firms are currently being hampered in part by adverse weather conditions. Companies are similarly confident about their business expectations for the next six months as they were in the previous month.

The KOF Employment Indicator for the third quarter of 2024 has recorded a slight quarter-on-quarter increase for the first time since mid-2022. The improved employment prospects in the manufacturing sector are particularly evident.

In July, the KOF Economic Barometer moves closer to its medium-term average level, after having been somewhat more clearly above it during the spring quarter. The Swiss economy is likely to continue to grow at a rather moderate pace in the near future.

The KOF MPC figure for 18 July 2024 is 0. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.

After three consecutive increases, the Leading Barometer fell slightly, although it remained above average. The decline in the Coincident Barometer was even smaller. As a result, the indicator remains within the narrow range in which it has been fluctuating since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the slight decline in the Global Barometers in July currently does not mark a turning point.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises a little in June and remains in a slightly above-average range, as it has been since the beginning of the year. The Swiss economy should continue to recover little by little over the coming months.

KOF is forecasting an increase of 1.2 per cent in real sport-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) for the current year (1.6 per cent including sporting events). Sport-adjusted growth of 1.8 per cent is expected for 2025 (1.4 per cent including sporting events). KOF’s economic outlook is therefore virtually unchanged compared with its spring forecast.

The Leading Global Barometer rises for the third consecutive month in June, but it has not yet fully recovered from the losses of February and March. The Coincident Barometer remains relatively stable for the fourth month in a row.

The KOF MPC figure for 6 June 2024 is 0. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.

The KOF Economic Barometer falls again in May after a rise in the previous month. This year it has only managed to stay very slightly above its medium-term average. Although the Swiss economy is robust, it is not showing much vigour beyond that.

KOF and the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper surveyed economists at Swiss universities about the upcoming vote on the Swiss healthcare system on 9 June this year and received 113 responses. Two-thirds of survey respondents rejected the premium-reduction initiative. Although economists were less unanimous on the cost-capping initiative, a small majority rejected this as well.

The Leading Global Barometer rises for the second month in a row, but only partially compensating for the losses in February and March. The Coincident Barometer increases marginally this month, remaining within the narrow range of 93 to 94 points observed since February.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from KOF’s Business Tendency Surveys, improved slightly in April. The situation in the manufacturing sector eased, while it deteriorated slightly in the construction industry.

The KOF Employment Indicator has recorded a further decline in the second quarter of 2024 compared with last quarter. The deterioration in employment prospects is particularly evident in the manufacturing and banking sectors. Overall, the indicator is approaching its long-term average.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises in April after two consecutive months of decline. With this increase, the barometer settles in the slightly above-average range. The Swiss economic development is robust, but there is currently no strong boost in sight.

The KOF MPC figure for 11 April 2024 is -0.26. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged and confirmed that incoming data is in line with its previous medium-term inflation outlook.

The Leading Global Barometer rises in April, partially offsetting the substantial decline of the previous month to remain close to the neutral level of 100 points. The Coincident Barometer falls slightly this month, confirming that it peaked in January before pointing to a subsequent phase of rather sluggish global economic activity.

The KOF Economic Barometer falls slightly in March and now stands at 101.5 points. The Barometer had recorded repeated increases since mid 2023 and is now stabilizing above its long-term average. The outlook for the Swiss economy therefore remains positive.

For 2024, KOF is forecasting a 1.2 per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events. The sluggish global economy and declining investment in particular are slowing the growth of the Swiss economy. The outlook for 2025 is more positive, with a growth rate of 1.8 per cent in sport-adjusted GDP being forecast.

In March 2024, the Leading Global Barometer records a setback, and the Coincident Barometer rises slightly after a fall in the previous month. The results reflect a sluggish development of global economic activity in the first quarter of 2024 and suggest that this will only improve slowly in the coming months.

The KOF MPC figure for 7 March 2024 is -0,39. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.

In February, the KOF Economic Barometer decreases slightly after having risen three times in a row. On the back of these previous increases, the Barometer remains above average. Despite the slight cooling, the rather positive economic signals in Switzerland remain intact.

After seven consecutive months of increases, the Global Barometers decline in February. The Coincident Barometer remains below average, while the Leading Barometer remains above average. This decline is a warning that the recovery process is fragile.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated on the basis of KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell again at the beginning of the year. Weak foreign demand in particular is weighing on the export sector. However, there is a silver lining on the horizon: firms are much more confident about the next six months than they were previously.

Starting from a fairly high level, the KOF Employment Indicator fell slightly in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the previous quarter. This decline is the result of the deteriorating outlook in the retail, hospitality and manufacturing sectors. Overall, however, the Swiss labour market is expected to perform well in the current and coming quarters.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises for the third consecutive month in January. This is the first time since March last year that it rises above its medium-term average. There are increasing signs that the Swiss economy will soon recover.

The KOF MPC figure for 25 January 2024 is 0.09. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.

The Global Barometers continue to increase, signalling an acceleration in world economic growth at the turn of the year. However, despite the seventh consecutive rise, the Coincident Barometer remains below its average of 100 points. The Leading Barometer reaches its highest level since 2021.

The KOF Economic Barometer rose moderately again in December and now stands at 97.8 points. It is thus once again moving one step closer to its long-term average. The movements at below-average levels that have been observed since the beginning of 2023 are thus continuing. The outlook for the Swiss economy for the start of 2024 therefore remains subdued despite a further improvement.

The KOF MPC figure for 14 December 2023 is 0.00. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.

In its latest forecast, KOF expects gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for major sporting events to grow by 1.2 per cent in 2023. The Swiss economy will be supported primarily by domestic activity until 2025, while foreign trade will be curbed by the weak global economy. KOF is forecasting that GDP adjusted for sporting events will increase by 1.3 per cent in 2024 and will continue to rise until the end of the forecast period in 2025.

The Global Barometers recorded their sixth consecutive increase, ending the year at a higher level than 12 months ago. The results signal that the recovery in global growth is continuing, albeit at a slow pace. The Coincident Barometer remains below 100 points, while the Leading Barometer has already established itself at a level above neutral.

Globalisation increased moderately in 2021. However, it has not fully recovered from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains below its 2019 level. The most globalised country is Switzerland, followed by Belgium and the Netherlands. While economic globalisation is showing signs of recovery, social globalisation is characterised by ongoing restrictions owing to the pandemic.

In November, the KOF Economic Barometer rises moderately and now stands at 96.7 points. It is thus continuing to approach its long-term average. Since the mid of 2023, it has thus remained at a stable, albeit below-average level. Therefore, the outlook for the Swiss economy remains moderate.

Both Global Barometers improve in November. The Leading Global Barometer points to an acceleration in world economic growth in the three to six months ahead. The Coincident Barometer is rising despite the monetary tightening in several countries, but it remains below its historical average.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from KOF’s Business Tendency Surveys, fell in October for the second month in a row. Following a modest decline in the previous month, business activity cooled significantly in October. Meanwhile, upward pressure on prices is decreasing and companies’ wage expectations are lower than last autumn.

Healthcare expenditure in Switzerland will continue to grow over the forecasting period (2022 to 2025). However, its share of gross domestic product will stabilise at around 11.5 per cent. These are the key findings of KOF’s healthcare expenditure forecast, which was prepared with the help of a research contribution from comparis.ch.

The KOF Employment Indicator shows a slight decrease in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter. Nevertheless, the indicator is still clearly in positive territory. Employment is therefore expected to continue to rise in the next months. Employment is only declining in the manufacturing sector.

In October, the KOF Economic Barometer remains at an almost unchanged level and stands now at 95.8 points. It thus remains slightly below its long-term average. Together with the small movements of the Barometer since the summer, this indicates a weak but stable development of the Swiss economy towards the end of this year.

The KOF MPC figure for 26 October 2023 is 0.29. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.

The Leading Global Barometer rises for the fourth month in a row, moving more clearly into the over 100 points range, suggesting an above average acceleration in world economic growth over the next three to six months. The slight decline in the Coincident Barometer shows that this framework is likely to be reached gradually.

The KOF Economic Barometer remains pessimistic in September and now stands at 95.9 points, following a revised value of 96.2 in August. The barometer thus remains below its long-term average. The economic barometer, which has been weakening in recent months, indicates a cooling Swiss economy for the end of 2023.

The Swiss economy is currently characterised by two opposing trends. On the one hand, private consumption and the robust labour market are supporting the domestic economy. On the other, the weakness of the global economy is weighing on the export-driven Swiss economy. All in all, KOF expects real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for major sporting events, to increase by 1.2 per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year.

The KOF MPC figure for 14 September 2023 is 0.09. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council reiterated that inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long.

The Global Barometers rise in all regions for the third consecutive month in September. Although still below average, the Coincident Barometer shows some improvement in overall economic conditions, while the Leading Barometer reaches its historical average of 100 points.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly again in August and thus settled at the below average level observed since May. At 91.1 points, the barometer continues to signal below-average development. Accordingly, the Swiss economy has to expect a somewhat unfavourable economic situation in the near future.

This year’s round of pay bargaining could be another meagre one in real terms for wage earners. Companies expect to see wages increase by an average of only 2 per cent over the next twelve months. Since they are forecasting inflation of over 2 per cent for the same period, they are not anticipating any real pay increases. This is the result of a KOF survey of almost 9,000 businesses in Switzerland.

In August, the Global Barometers increase for the second month in a row across the regions. The Coincident Barometer continues to slowly improve in 2023 while the Leading Barometer advances more rapidly, approaching almost the neutral level of 100 points.  

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss economy, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell significantly in July. Business activity is less buoyant than it has been for two years. In contrast, upward pressure on prices is decreasing in almost all sectors of the economy. The shortage of skilled workers is no longer quite as acute as it was recently.

Although the KOF Employment Indicator is falling in the third quarter of 2023, it remains in clearly positive territory. The deterioration in the employment outlook is limited to individual sectors which are affected more by global economic trends. Overall, we still expect to see employment growth in the Swiss labour market.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises slightly in July. After three consecutive declines, it is now going up again for the first time, but at 92.2 points, it still shows a below-average development. The economic environment remains difficult for the Swiss economy.

The KOF MPC figure for 27 July 2023 is 0.25. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long.

The Global Barometers increase slightly this month, oscillating in the below-average range. This reflects the difficulties in the recovery process of world economic activity in 2023. This month’s increase occurred in all three regions analysed.

In June, the KOF Economic Barometer stands at 90.8 points. The outlook for the Swiss economy thus remains at a below-average level for the second half of the year.

The KOF MPC figure for 15 June 2023 is 0.06. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation has been coming down but is projected to remain too high for too long.

The Swiss economy is currently stable. However, the subdued performance of the global economy is also making economic activity in Switzerland more sluggish. The labour market, on the other hand, is in very good shape. Private consumption is also boosting economic activity. Gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events will increase by 1.2 per cent this year and by 1.7 per cent next year.

After two months of relative stability, the Global Barometers weakened in June, reflecting the challenging recovery of the world economic activity in 2023. The decline was influenced by the deterioration of the economic environment in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and in Europe.

KOF and the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper have surveyed economists at Swiss universities on the upcoming vote on the Climate Change Act and other topical economic policy issues relating to climate change. There is disagreement among survey respondents as to whether the measures contained in the counter-proposal are sufficient to achieve the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.