Press Releases

In March 2024, the Leading Global Barometer records a setback, and the Coincident Barometer rises slightly after a fall in the previous month. The results reflect a sluggish development of global economic activity in the first quarter of 2024 and suggest that this will only improve slowly in the coming months.

After seven consecutive months of increases, the Global Barometers decline in February. The Coincident Barometer remains below average, while the Leading Barometer remains above average. This decline is a warning that the recovery process is fragile.

The Global Barometers recorded their sixth consecutive increase, ending the year at a higher level than 12 months ago. The results signal that the recovery in global growth is continuing, albeit at a slow pace. The Coincident Barometer remains below 100 points, while the Leading Barometer has already established itself at a level above neutral.

The Global Barometers increase in February for the first time since November 2022 across all regions, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa region standing out for the improved climate in the region.

The Coincident Barometer rises after eight consecutive falls and the Leading Barometer increases for the second month in a row. Because the improvement is only modest, the level of the indicators continues to reflect an adverse scenario for world economic growth in the coming months.

In June, the Global Barometers are quite stable, following noticeable falls in the two previous months. The Coincident Barometer rises a little and sustains a level compatible with moderate growth of the world economy in the second quarter. However, the current stability of the Leading Barometer continues to reflect a skeptical outlook for global economic growth in the months ahead.

The Global Barometers fall for the second consecutive month, reflecting negative factors such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, the COVID-19 responses in China and the worldwide very high inflation. The Coincident Barometer remains below the historical mean of 100 points, while the Leading Barometer drops further from the mean, reflecting the increased risk of a more pronounced slowdown in several countries.

The Global Barometers decrease in April, likely reflecting shocks such as the war in Ukraine and the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in China. The Coincident Barometer is now below the historical mean of 100 points for the first time since February 2021. In addition, the more noticeably drop in the Leading Barometer signals the perspective of a stronger deceleration in world growth for the coming months.

The Global Economic Barometers are dropping more sharply in March. This partly reflects the normalization of the global economy at the beginning of 2022 and is largely driven by changed assessments in Asia. The coincident indicator remains relatively strong, but the distancing of the leading indicator from the historical mean of 100 points may be a first sign of a stronger deceleration than previously forecast for the coming months.

The Global Barometers fall slightly in February consolidating the baseline reached since December 2021. Back then, the indices rose following five months of significant losses. The coincident indicator signals a still above average pace for the global economy in the first months of 2022. The leading indicator indicates a continuing normalisation.

After declining throughout most of the second semester of 2021, the Global Economic Barometers rise in January for the second consecutive month. The Coincident Barometer remains above the historical mean, while the Leading Barometer returns to the neutral range of 100 points.

After a noticeable drop during the second semester of 2021, the Global Economic Barometers remain relatively stable in December compared to the previous month. The Coincident Barometer discontinues a sequence of decreases that began in July, while the Leading Barometer records its seventh successive, albeit modest, decrease, thereby remaining below its long-run average of 100 points and exposing the difficulties in maintaining the rate of recovery of the world economy.

The Global Economic Barometers declined once again in November, continuing the weakening that started in the third quarter. Despite falling in all regions, the Coincident Barometer remains above 100 points. However, the Leading Barometer remains below 100 for a second consecutive month, albeit with a less pronounced decline in November.

In October, the Global Economic Barometers maintain the weakening tendency that started in July, reflecting the slowdown in World economic growth in the second half of 2021. The more intense fall of the Leading Barometer suggests a possible intensification of this tendency in the next three to six months.

In September, the Global Economic Barometers maintain their weakening tendency that started in July, reflecting the slowdown in world economic growth in the second half of 2021. Despite the fall, the indicator levels remain high and compatible with the continuity of the current phase of recovery of the world economy.

The fall in the Global Economic Barometers in August indicates a slowdown in world economic growth rates for the second half of 2021. Despite their decline, the indicators remain at a high level consistent with the continuation of the current recovery phase in global economic activity.

The Global Economic Barometers fell in July, following the tendency already indicated by the Leading Global Barometer in the previous month. Despite the monthly downward development, both indicators remain at high levels, compatible with the continued phase of recovery of global economic activity in 2021. However, the current and future perspectives in the three investigated regions have cooled somewhat.

The Global Economic Barometers increase markedly for the second successive month. This reflects, among other things, the progress in vaccination programs against COVID-19 in various countries and thus the perspective of accelerating the level of global activity in the coming months. This month, all investigated regions improve both their current assessment of the situation and their expectations for the near future.

The euro area is poised to begin its economic recovery. In the first quarter, economic output is expected to have fallen by a further 0.4 percent compared with the previous quarter, when it shrank by 0.7 percent. This is the consensus of three research institutes: ifo in Munich, KOF in Zurich, and Istat in Rome. The second quarter is expected to see growth of 1.5 percent over the first quarter, followed by 2.2 percent in the third.

The Global Economic Barometers increase considerably in March, also reflecting the initial success in vaccination programs in some countries and optimism regarding the possibility of achieving control over the pandemic in the coming months. However, the results are still heterogeneous among regions.

The February Global Economic Barometer results reflect the uncertainty of the rate of recovery of global economic activity in the first half of 2021 and the noticeable heterogeneity between the regions. The Coincident Barometer increases with less intensity than in the previous month, while the Leading Barometer is moving towards the approximately neutral level.

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers rise in January, signaling a continued recovery of global economic activity. The increase in the Coincident Barometer is small and reverses the fall in the previous month. The Leading Barometer increases more noticeably, once again reflecting optimism, which may now be driven by the beginning of vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 in various countries.

Leading research institutes have sharply cut their economic forecasts for the euro area. For the fourth quarter of 2020, they now expect economic output to shrink by 2.7 percent. At the end of September, they were still expecting growth of 2.2 percent. The forecast was revised given the large number of coronavirus infections and the closure of parts of the economy, as was announced by ifo, KOF and Istat.

Economic growth in the euro area will level off in the fourth quarter, following a massive recovery in the third quarter. This is the consensus of three research institutes: ifo in Munich, Istat in Rome and KOF. However, reliable prognoses are difficult to make in the current environment because nobody knows how infection rates will develop, when a vaccine will become available, and what impact economic policy will have.

The  Global Economic Barometers maintain their upward tendencies that began in May, after historic lows in April. The Coincident Barometer has reduced its upward pace and still reflects economic activity levels well below those before the Covid-19 pandemic. The Leading Barometer, on the other hand, reaches its highest level since 2010, signalling continued optimism regarding upcoming world GDP developments. Given the high levels of uncertainty, this should be interpreted with caution.

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers are rising in August, sustaining the tendency towards a world economic rebound. While the Coincident Barometer continues to gradually move away from the trough of the crisis, the Leading Barometer has advanced faster, signalling confidence for the recovery of world GDP in the coming months. This result should be interpreted cautiously given the high degree of uncertainty on both the economic and health fronts.

Over the next few months, the euro area will slide into recession. This is the forecast of the ifo Institute in Munich and KOF in Zurich in their Eurozone Economic Outlook (EZEO). Economic output is likely to have shrunk by 2.3 percent in the first quarter and will shrink by another 10.5 percent in the second quarter; for the third quarter of 2020, the researchers are forecasting growth of 8.7 percent. All figures are quarter over quarter.

The two Global Economic Barometers show how much the coronavirus epidemic has already impacted the prospects for the global economy. Both the Leading Barometer for global economic development and the Coincident Barometer are declining sharply. These are the lowest values for both Barometers designed by KOF and FGV since 2009.

The euro area’s economy will grow by 0.4 percent respectively in Q3 and Q4 2018 and Q1 2019, according to the three economics institutes ifo (Munich), ISAT (Rome) and KOF (Zurich). This represents a continuation of developments seen in the first two quarters of 2018.