Press Releases
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Global Barometers reverse previous month’s losses
Press release
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The Global Barometers reverse the previous month’s decline and continue the tendency of relative stability observed in recent months. The Leading Barometer remains above the neutral level of 100 points despite having lost ground earlier this year. The Coincident Barometer, in turn, has remained stable in a narrow band around 94 points since the beginning of the year.
Swiss economy recovering slightly during summer
Press release
![Konjunkturumfragen](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/08/business-tendency-survey/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.2118099094.jpg)
The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated based on the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, rose slightly in July. However, the indicator had fallen even more sharply in the previous month. Nonetheless, firms are currently being hampered in part by adverse weather conditions. Companies are similarly confident about their business expectations for the next six months as they were in the previous month.
KOF Employment Indicator rises for the first time in two years
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The KOF Employment Indicator for the third quarter of 2024 has recorded a slight quarter-on-quarter increase for the first time since mid-2022. The improved employment prospects in the manufacturing sector are particularly evident.
KOF Economic Barometer: Prospects now only slightly above average
Press release
![Baro](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/07/kof-konjunkturbarometer-perspektiven-nur-noch-knapp-ueberdurchschnittlich/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1462431908.jpg)
In July, the KOF Economic Barometer moves closer to its medium-term average level, after having been somewhat more clearly above it during the spring quarter. The Swiss economy is likely to continue to grow at a rather moderate pace in the near future.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area, July 2024
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![ECB in Frankfurt](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/07/kof-monetary-policy-communicator-for-the-euro-area-july-2024/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1071587256.jpg)
The KOF MPC figure for 18 July 2024 is 0. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.
Global Barometers decline slightly in July
Press release
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After three consecutive increases, the Leading Barometer fell slightly, although it remained above average. The decline in the Coincident Barometer was even smaller. As a result, the indicator remains within the narrow range in which it has been fluctuating since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the slight decline in the Global Barometers in July currently does not mark a turning point.
KOF Economic Barometer: Slightly more favourable outlook
Press release
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The KOF Economic Barometer rises a little in June and remains in a slightly above-average range, as it has been since the beginning of the year. The Swiss economy should continue to recover little by little over the coming months.
Recovery in Europe supports Swiss economy
Press release
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KOF is forecasting an increase of 1.2 per cent in real sport-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) for the current year (1.6 per cent including sporting events). Sport-adjusted growth of 1.8 per cent is expected for 2025 (1.4 per cent including sporting events). KOF’s economic outlook is therefore virtually unchanged compared with its spring forecast.
Leading Global Barometer continues to recover
Press release
![Container](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/06/leading-global-barometer-continues-to-recover/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1700366994.jpg)
The Leading Global Barometer rises for the third consecutive month in June, but it has not yet fully recovered from the losses of February and March. The Coincident Barometer remains relatively stable for the fourth month in a row.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area, June 2024
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The KOF MPC figure for 6 June 2024 is 0. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.
KOF Economic Barometer: Muted momentum
Press release
![Konjunkturbarometer](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/05/economic-barometer/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1684019134.jpg)
The KOF Economic Barometer falls again in May after a rise in the previous month. This year it has only managed to stay very slightly above its medium-term average. Although the Swiss economy is robust, it is not showing much vigour beyond that.
KOF-NZZ survey: economic researchers reject premium-reduction and cost-capping initiatives
Press release
![Arzt Patient](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/05/kof-nzz-survey-health/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1680286814.jpg)
KOF and the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper surveyed economists at Swiss universities about the upcoming vote on the Swiss healthcare system on 9 June this year and received 113 responses. Two-thirds of survey respondents rejected the premium-reduction initiative. Although economists were less unanimous on the cost-capping initiative, a small majority rejected this as well.
Global Barometers rise again in May
Press release
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The Leading Global Barometer rises for the second month in a row, but only partially compensating for the losses in February and March. The Coincident Barometer increases marginally this month, remaining within the narrow range of 93 to 94 points observed since February.
KOF Business Tendency Surveys from April: modest recovery in the business situation
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The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from KOF’s Business Tendency Surveys, improved slightly in April. The situation in the manufacturing sector eased, while it deteriorated slightly in the construction industry.
KOF Employment Indicator: downward trend continuing in the second quarter of 2024
Press release
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The KOF Employment Indicator has recorded a further decline in the second quarter of 2024 compared with last quarter. The deterioration in employment prospects is particularly evident in the manufacturing and banking sectors. Overall, the indicator is approaching its long-term average.
KOF Economic Barometer: Slight revival in April
Press release
![KOF Konjunkturbarometer](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/04/economic-barometer/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.427484386.jpg)
The KOF Economic Barometer rises in April after two consecutive months of decline. With this increase, the barometer settles in the slightly above-average range. The Swiss economic development is robust, but there is currently no strong boost in sight.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area, April 2024
Press release
![ECB](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/04/kof-monetary-policy-communicator-for-the-euro-area-april-2024/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.869283778.jpg)
The KOF MPC figure for 11 April 2024 is -0.26. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged and confirmed that incoming data is in line with its previous medium-term inflation outlook.
Global Barometers settle at moderate levels
Press release
![Global Barometer](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/04/global-barometers-settle-at-moderate-levels/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1984107356.jpg)
The Leading Global Barometer rises in April, partially offsetting the substantial decline of the previous month to remain close to the neutral level of 100 points. The Coincident Barometer falls slightly this month, confirming that it peaked in January before pointing to a subsequent phase of rather sluggish global economic activity.
KOF Economic Barometer: Stabilization above the average
Press release
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The KOF Economic Barometer falls slightly in March and now stands at 101.5 points. The Barometer had recorded repeated increases since mid 2023 and is now stabilizing above its long-term average. The outlook for the Swiss economy therefore remains positive.
Global economic weakness hampering Swiss economy
Press release
![Forecast](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/03/global-economic-weakness-hampering-Swiss-economy/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1500831253.jpg)
For 2024, KOF is forecasting a 1.2 per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events. The sluggish global economy and declining investment in particular are slowing the growth of the Swiss economy. The outlook for 2025 is more positive, with a growth rate of 1.8 per cent in sport-adjusted GDP being forecast.
Leading Global Barometer signals slower recovery in coming months
Press release
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In March 2024, the Leading Global Barometer records a setback, and the Coincident Barometer rises slightly after a fall in the previous month. The results reflect a sluggish development of global economic activity in the first quarter of 2024 and suggest that this will only improve slowly in the coming months.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area, March 2024
Press release
![ecb](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/03/kof-monetary-policy-communicator-for-the-euro-area-february-2024/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1071587256.jpg)
The KOF MPC figure for 7 March 2024 is -0,39. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.
KOF Economic Barometer: Still above average despite decline
Press release
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In February, the KOF Economic Barometer decreases slightly after having risen three times in a row. On the back of these previous increases, the Barometer remains above average. Despite the slight cooling, the rather positive economic signals in Switzerland remain intact.
Global Economic Barometers fail to continue their upward series
Press release
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After seven consecutive months of increases, the Global Barometers decline in February. The Coincident Barometer remains below average, while the Leading Barometer remains above average. This decline is a warning that the recovery process is fragile.
KOF Business Tendency Surveys from January: weaker economy but firms expect to see improvement
Press release
![Konjunkturumfragen](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/02/business-tendency-surveys/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.2045480465.jpg)
The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated on the basis of KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell again at the beginning of the year. Weak foreign demand in particular is weighing on the export sector. However, there is a silver lining on the horizon: firms are much more confident about the next six months than they were previously.
KOF Employment Indicator: labour market remains in good shape
Press release
![Employment Indicator](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/02/employment-indicator/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.688298169.jpg)
Starting from a fairly high level, the KOF Employment Indicator fell slightly in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the previous quarter. This decline is the result of the deteriorating outlook in the retail, hospitality and manufacturing sectors. Overall, however, the Swiss labour market is expected to perform well in the current and coming quarters.
KOF Economic Barometer: Bright spots for the Swiss economy
Press release
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The KOF Economic Barometer rises for the third consecutive month in January. This is the first time since March last year that it rises above its medium-term average. There are increasing signs that the Swiss economy will soon recover.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area, January 2024
Press release
![ECB](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2024/01/kof-monetary-policy-communicator-for-the-euro-area-january-2023/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1071587256.jpg)
The KOF MPC figure for 25 January 2024 is 0.09. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.
Global Barometers on the rise
Press release
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The Global Barometers continue to increase, signalling an acceleration in world economic growth at the turn of the year. However, despite the seventh consecutive rise, the Coincident Barometer remains below its average of 100 points. The Leading Barometer reaches its highest level since 2021.
KOF Economic Barometer: Further slight recovery
Press release
![Baro](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/12/economic-barometer/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1954559918.jpg)
The KOF Economic Barometer rose moderately again in December and now stands at 97.8 points. It is thus once again moving one step closer to its long-term average. The movements at below-average levels that have been observed since the beginning of 2023 are thus continuing. The outlook for the Swiss economy for the start of 2024 therefore remains subdued despite a further improvement.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area, December 2023
Press release
![ECB](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/12/kof-monetary-policy-communicator-for-the-euro-area-december-2023/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1071587256.jpg)
The KOF MPC figure for 14 December 2023 is 0.00. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.
KOF Economic Forecast, winter 2023: Swiss economy in the wake of the international economic downturn
Press release
![Uhr](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/12/economic-forecast/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.829783212.jpg)
In its latest forecast, KOF expects gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for major sporting events to grow by 1.2 per cent in 2023. The Swiss economy will be supported primarily by domestic activity until 2025, while foreign trade will be curbed by the weak global economy. KOF is forecasting that GDP adjusted for sporting events will increase by 1.3 per cent in 2024 and will continue to rise until the end of the forecast period in 2025.
Global Barometers on the rise for the sixth month in a row
Press release
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The Global Barometers recorded their sixth consecutive increase, ending the year at a higher level than 12 months ago. The results signal that the recovery in global growth is continuing, albeit at a slow pace. The Coincident Barometer remains below 100 points, while the Leading Barometer has already established itself at a level above neutral.
KOF Globalisation Index: degree of globalisation still below pre-pandemic levels
Press release
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Globalisation increased moderately in 2021. However, it has not fully recovered from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains below its 2019 level. The most globalised country is Switzerland, followed by Belgium and the Netherlands. While economic globalisation is showing signs of recovery, social globalisation is characterised by ongoing restrictions owing to the pandemic.
KOF Economic Barometer: Steady development expected
Press release
![Baro](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/11/economic-barometer/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1149217057.jpg)
In November, the KOF Economic Barometer rises moderately and now stands at 96.7 points. It is thus continuing to approach its long-term average. Since the mid of 2023, it has thus remained at a stable, albeit below-average level. Therefore, the outlook for the Swiss economy remains moderate.
Leading Global Barometer signals a more favourable outlook for the coming months
Press release
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Both Global Barometers improve in November. The Leading Global Barometer points to an acceleration in world economic growth in the three to six months ahead. The Coincident Barometer is rising despite the monetary tightening in several countries, but it remains below its historical average.
KOF Business Tendency Surveys for October: downturn continues
Press release
![Maschine](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/11/business-tendency-surveys/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.2014923155.jpg)
The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from KOF’s Business Tendency Surveys, fell in October for the second month in a row. Following a modest decline in the previous month, business activity cooled significantly in October. Meanwhile, upward pressure on prices is decreasing and companies’ wage expectations are lower than last autumn.
Healthcare expenditure as a share of gross domestic product stabilises at 11.5 per cent
Press release
![Krankenhaus](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/11/healthcare-expenditure/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.607861531.jpg)
Healthcare expenditure in Switzerland will continue to grow over the forecasting period (2022 to 2025). However, its share of gross domestic product will stabilise at around 11.5 per cent. These are the key findings of KOF’s healthcare expenditure forecast, which was prepared with the help of a research contribution from comparis.ch.
KOF Employment Indicator: Good labour market situation despite gloomy outlook in the manufacturing sector
Press release
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The KOF Employment Indicator shows a slight decrease in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter. Nevertheless, the indicator is still clearly in positive territory. Employment is therefore expected to continue to rise in the next months. Employment is only declining in the manufacturing sector.
KOF Economic Barometer: Stable outlook for the end of the year
Press release
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In October, the KOF Economic Barometer remains at an almost unchanged level and stands now at 95.8 points. It thus remains slightly below its long-term average. Together with the small movements of the Barometer since the summer, this indicates a weak but stable development of the Swiss economy towards the end of this year.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator for the Euro Area, October 2023
Press release
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The KOF MPC figure for 26 October 2023 is 0.29. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.
Leading Global Barometer climbs above the 100-point average
Press release
![ship](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/10/global-baro/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.325984196.jpg)
The Leading Global Barometer rises for the fourth month in a row, moving more clearly into the over 100 points range, suggesting an above average acceleration in world economic growth over the next three to six months. The slight decline in the Coincident Barometer shows that this framework is likely to be reached gradually.
KOF Economic Barometer: After revision – outlook remains subdued
Press release
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The KOF Economic Barometer remains pessimistic in September and now stands at 95.9 points, following a revised value of 96.2 in August. The barometer thus remains below its long-term average. The economic barometer, which has been weakening in recent months, indicates a cooling Swiss economy for the end of 2023.
Domestic economy providing support; foreign trade weakening
Press release
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The Swiss economy is currently characterised by two opposing trends. On the one hand, private consumption and the robust labour market are supporting the domestic economy. On the other, the weakness of the global economy is weighing on the export-driven Swiss economy. All in all, KOF expects real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for major sporting events, to increase by 1.2 per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator, September 2023
Press release
![ecb](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/09/kof-monetary-policy-communicator-july-2023/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1071587256.jpg)
The KOF MPC figure for 14 September 2023 is 0.09. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council reiterated that inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long.
Global Barometers point to improving conditions
Press release
![Ship](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/09/global-barometers-point-to-improving-conditions/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.325984196.jpg)
The Global Barometers rise in all regions for the third consecutive month in September. Although still below average, the Coincident Barometer shows some improvement in overall economic conditions, while the Leading Barometer reaches its historical average of 100 points.
KOF Economic Barometer remains at below-average level
Press release
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The KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly again in August and thus settled at the below average level observed since May. At 91.1 points, the barometer continues to signal below-average development. Accordingly, the Swiss economy has to expect a somewhat unfavourable economic situation in the near future.
Wage survey: firms expecting hardly any rise in real wages
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This year’s round of pay bargaining could be another meagre one in real terms for wage earners. Companies expect to see wages increase by an average of only 2 per cent over the next twelve months. Since they are forecasting inflation of over 2 per cent for the same period, they are not anticipating any real pay increases. This is the result of a KOF survey of almost 9,000 businesses in Switzerland.
Leading Global Barometer rising towards historical average
Press release
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In August, the Global Barometers increase for the second month in a row across the regions. The Coincident Barometer continues to slowly improve in 2023 while the Leading Barometer advances more rapidly, approaching almost the neutral level of 100 points.
KOF Business Tendency Surveys: Swiss economy sluggish; manufacturing sector on a downward trend
Press release
![Switzerland and Business Situation Indicator](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/08/business-tendency-surveys-2023-q3/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1090832010.jpg)
The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss economy, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell significantly in July. Business activity is less buoyant than it has been for two years. In contrast, upward pressure on prices is decreasing in almost all sectors of the economy. The shortage of skilled workers is no longer quite as acute as it was recently.
Employment outlook in the manufacturing sector clouding over
Press release
![jobs](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/08/employment-indicator/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.11505303.jpg)
Although the KOF Employment Indicator is falling in the third quarter of 2023, it remains in clearly positive territory. The deterioration in the employment outlook is limited to individual sectors which are affected more by global economic trends. Overall, we still expect to see employment growth in the Swiss labour market.
KOF Economic Barometer: Slight easing, but no all-clear
Press release
![Baro](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/07/economic-barometer/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.144311857.jpg)
The KOF Economic Barometer rises slightly in July. After three consecutive declines, it is now going up again for the first time, but at 92.2 points, it still shows a below-average development. The economic environment remains difficult for the Swiss economy.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator, July 2023
Press release
![ecb](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/07/kof-monetary-policy-communicator-july-2023/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.1071587256.jpg)
The KOF MPC figure for 27 July 2023 is 0.25. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long.
Global Economic Barometers fluctuate in the adverse zone
Press release
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The Global Barometers increase slightly this month, oscillating in the below-average range. This reflects the difficulties in the recovery process of world economic activity in 2023. This month’s increase occurred in all three regions analysed.
KOF Economic Barometer: Outlook remains gloomy
Press release
![Baro](/en/news-and-events/media/press-releases/2023/06/economic-barometer/_jcr_content/pageimages/imageSmall.imageformat.contentteaser.207303206.jpg)
In June, the KOF Economic Barometer stands at 90.8 points. The outlook for the Swiss economy thus remains at a below-average level for the second half of the year.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator, June 2023
Press release
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The KOF MPC figure for 15 June 2023 is 0.06. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation has been coming down but is projected to remain too high for too long.
Strong employment despite faltering economy
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The Swiss economy is currently stable. However, the subdued performance of the global economy is also making economic activity in Switzerland more sluggish. The labour market, on the other hand, is in very good shape. Private consumption is also boosting economic activity. Gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events will increase by 1.2 per cent this year and by 1.7 per cent next year.
Global Barometers weakened in June
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After two months of relative stability, the Global Barometers weakened in June, reflecting the challenging recovery of the world economic activity in 2023. The decline was influenced by the deterioration of the economic environment in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and in Europe.
KOF-NZZ survey: economists assess Swiss climate policy goals and measures
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KOF and the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper have surveyed economists at Swiss universities on the upcoming vote on the Climate Change Act and other topical economic policy issues relating to climate change. There is disagreement among survey respondents as to whether the measures contained in the counter-proposal are sufficient to achieve the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.
KOF Economic Barometer: Economic outlook continuous to darken
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In May, the KOF Economic Barometer falls significantly and now stands at 90.2 points. This is the second time in a row that the barometer has fallen sharply. The outlook for the Swiss economy for the middle of 2023 is thus deteriorating further and remains at a below-average level.
Global Barometers improve slightly but remain at subdued levels
Press release
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The Global Barometers rise only slightly in May, reflecting continued weakness in global economic activity in most countries and moderate optimism, partly related to the gradual recovery of the Chinese economy.
KOF Business Tendency Surveys: Swiss economy lacking stimulus
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The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss economy, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell in April. It had hardly moved in the previous month. Performance varied from sector to sector. Although the Swiss economy is faltering slightly, there are also positive signals. Supply chain problems, for example, have largely dissipated and the upward pressure on prices is decreasing.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator, May 2023
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The KOF MPC figure for 4 May 2023 is 0.19. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that the inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long.
Positive outlook for the Swiss labour market persists
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Starting from a high level, the KOF Employment Indicator is decreasing slightly. However, above-average employment growth on the Swiss labour market can still be expected in the current quarter.
KOF Economic Barometer: Economic outlook slightly gloomier
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In April, the KOF Economic Barometer declines, dipping slightly lower under its medium-term average value. At the moment, the Swiss economy cannot really find its footing.
Global Barometers fall slightly after rising for two months
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The levels of the Global Barometers remained almost unchanged in April, halting the recovery tendency observed earlier this year. The result was mainly influenced by the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, where the indicators retreated after two noticeably rises.
KOF-NZZ survey of economists: Economists are sceptical about the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS
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Together with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), KOF surveyed economists at Swiss universities on the Swiss banking sector and the takeover of Credit Suisse and received 167 responses. Almost half of the economists would have preferred a takeover by the state (and possible later sale) as a solution. More than two-thirds of the survey participants fear a deterioration in the stability of the Swiss banking sector as a result of the takeover.
KOF Economic Barometer: Level falls marginally
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The KOF Economic Barometer fell marginally in March. It now points just slightly below its long-term average value. Accordingly, the outlook for the Swiss economy has hardly changed compared to the previous month.
Mild winter calming fears of recession
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According to KOF’s economic forecast, Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events will rise by 1.1 per cent in real terms this year and by 1.7 per cent next year. Thanks to the mild winter, the energy crisis has had less of an impact on the economy than was feared. However, persistently high inflation and rising interest rates are slowing economic growth. In addition, the turbulences in the banking sector are causing uncertainty worldwide.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator, March 2023
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The KOF MPC figure for 16 March 2023 is 0.20. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that there is an elevated level of uncertainty about the inflation outlook.
Global Barometers continue to rise
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The Global Barometers rise for the second consecutive month in March 2023, fueled by the favorable evolution in the economic environment of the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.
KOF Economic Barometer: At long-term average
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The KOF Economic Barometer in February rose for the third month in a row. It is now exactly at its long-term average value. Accordingly, the outlook for the Swiss economy has improved further.
Global Barometers show upward corrections
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The Global Barometers increase in February for the first time since November 2022 across all regions, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa region standing out for the improved climate in the region.
KOF Business Tendency Surveys: Swiss economy starting the year with renewed confidence
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The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, rose significantly in January. While firms’ business had deteriorated in the autumn, a clearly positive trend was visible in January. The operating outlook for the coming months is more encouraging than before.
KOF Employment Indicator remains at a high level
Press release
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After the KOF Employment Indicator declined slightly at the end of 2022, the labour market outlook in particular is now improving. The willingness of Swiss companies to create jobs remains unbroken despite economic risks.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator, January 2023
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The KOF MPC figure for 2 February 2023 is -0.04. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that price pressures remain strong, as high energy costs are spreading throughout the economy.
KOF Economic Barometer: Economic recovery in Switzerland strengthens
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The KOF Economic Barometer rises at an accelerated pace in January and for the second month in a row. It nonetheless remains below its medium-term average. But the outlook for the Swiss economy at the beginning of the year is considerably less gloomy than it was in autumn last year.
Global Barometers continue to fall
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The Global Barometers continue to signal a pronounced world economic slowdown at the beginning of 2023. Both indicators record a fall for the month and reach levels which – excluding the worst period of the COVID-19 crisis – have not been seen since 2009. The latest results are particularly depressed by developments of the indicators in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.
KOF Economic Barometer: Outlook brightens
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The KOF Economic Barometer increased significantly in December and now stands at 92.2 points. This is the first time the barometer has risen after a prolonged downturn. The outlook for the Swiss economy is thus brightening slightly for the beginning of 2023, although remaining at a low level.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator, December 2022
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The KOF MPC figure for 15 December 2022 is 0.26. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation is expected to stay above the ECB’s inflation target until 2025.
Energy crisis continues to weigh on the economy
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KOF’s latest economic forecast predicts that Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for sporting events, will increase by 2.1 per cent in real terms this year. It will only grow by 1 per cent in the coming year owing to the global economic slowdown. KOF has made very few changes to its economic outlook and has hardly revised its latest forecast at all compared with the autumn forecast.
Global Barometers: world slowdown continues
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The Global Barometers continue to signal a clear world economic slowdown at the end of 2022. After a second successive fall, both indicators reach levels which – apart from the worst period of the COVID-19 crisis – have not been seen since the financial crisis in 2008/2009.
KOF Globalisation Index: COVID pandemic has slowed globalisation
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The COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a noticeable drag on globalisation. This is confirmed by the latest KOF Globalisation Index. The coronavirus crisis and the related restrictions have caused the largest and fastest decline in international flows in modern history. There is little change in the top ten most globalised countries, except that Switzerland and the Netherlands have swapped places. Switzerland has therefore regained its position as the most globalised country in the world.
KOF Economic Barometer: Outlook remains at a low level
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In November, the KOF Economic Barometer decreased again slightly and stands now at 89.5 points. This is the fifth time in a row that the barometer has fallen. The outlook for the Swiss economy therefore remains subdued in the coming months.
Swiss economy increases investment in digital technology
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The Swiss economy is investing more and more money in hardware and software. In particular, the use of digital technologies such as robots, big data applications and artificial intelligence is being expanded in many sectors. This is a key finding of the KOF Innovation Survey commissioned by Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI).
Increase in healthcare expenditure as a share of GDP is flatlining
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Healthcare spending will rise by 2.9 per cent this year. The growth rate will increase slightly to 3.6 per cent in 2023 and decrease again slightly to 3.1 per cent in 2024. Compared with economic output, healthcare expenditure will rise less sharply than in previous years. These are the key findings of KOF’s health expenditure forecast, which was prepared with the help of a research contribution from comparis.ch.
Global Barometers continue to signal a slowdown of the world economy for the coming months
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The Global Barometers fall once again in November after a slight improvement in the previous month. With the results, the Coincident Barometer reaches its lowest level since August 2020 and the Leading Barometer is the second lowest since June 2020, beating only the level of last August.
KOF Business Tendency Surveys: business activity slowing while manufacturing sector starts to weaken
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The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the Swiss private sector, which is calculated from the KOF Business Tendency Surveys, fell significantly in October. Although business remains predominantly encouraging, the last time the Business Situation Indicator was lower than it is at present was in June 2021. The signs of a slowdown in business activity in the manufacturing sector are unmistakable. This is shown by the results of the latest Business Tendency Surveys for October.
KOF Employment Indicator has peaked for the time being
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For the first time in over two years the KOF Employment Indicator is falling. Starting from a high level, the employment outlook for the next three months in particular is deteriorating. The manufacturing sector is being especially squeezed.
Economic outlook remains gloomy
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In October, the KOF Economic Barometer decreased and now stands at 90.9 points. As a result, the barometer is below its long-term average for the sixth time in a row. The outlook for the Swiss economy in the coming months therefore remains subdued.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator, October 2022
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The KOF MPC figure for 27 October 2022 is 0.49. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation will stay above the ECB’s target for an extended period.
Global Barometers: negative sequence does not continue in October
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The Coincident Barometer rises after eight consecutive falls and the Leading Barometer increases for the second month in a row. Because the improvement is only modest, the level of the indicators continues to reflect an adverse scenario for world economic growth in the coming months.
Energy crisis acting as a drag on the economy
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KOF is forecasting that Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.3 per cent this year. Under its baseline scenario KOF expects real gross domestic product adjusted for sporting events to rise by 1 per cent next year. Uncertainty about gas supplies during the winter has increased sharply throughout Europe. KOF’s baseline scenario assumes, however, that there will be no formal rationing on a major scale here.
KOF Economic Barometer: Outlook remains subdued
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The KOF Economic Barometer remains virtually unchanged in September and now stands at 93.8 points, coming from a revised 93.5 points in August. However, the barometer remains below its long-term average. The barometer, which has been weakening in recent months, augurs a cooling of the Swiss economy for the end of 2022.
Global Barometers suggest the world still faces an economic slowdown
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The Global Barometers move in opposite directions in September. The Coincident Barometer falls for the eighth consecutive month while the Leading Barometer increases, but continues to fluctuate at a low level, signaling continued pessimism in the global economic growth perspective for the coming months.
KOF Monetary Policy Communicator, September 2022
Press release
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The KOF MPC figure for 8 September 2022 is 0.53. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council communicated that inflation is far too high and is likely to stay above the ECB’s target for an extended period.
KOF-NZZ survey reveals that economists are in favour of ‘AHV 21’ reforms
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In August, KOF and the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper surveyed economists at Swiss universities on the country’s pension system and the upcoming vote on the ‘AHV 21’ reforms and received 133 responses. A clear majority of economists are (more or less) in favour of these reforms from an economic point of view. Raising the qualifying pension age is seen by more than half of survey respondents as the most important way of improving the financial situation of the AHV.
World economy slowdown running its course
Press release
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The Global Barometers fall once again in August, signalling a slowdown in world growth for this quarter. The Coincident Barometer decreases for the seventh month in a row, while the Leading Barometer drops again after remaining stable in the previous month. The results reflect a bleak perspective for world economic growth in the coming months.
KOF Business Tendency Surveys: Swiss economy still in good shape, but outlook deteriorating
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The Business Situation Indicator for Swiss companies fell slightly in July. However, it is still higher than it was at the beginning of this year, and the last time the situation was more encouraging than at present was in July 2011. However, firms are much less optimistic than before about their business prospects for the coming six months. The headwinds facing the Swiss economy are likely to strengthen in the near future.
KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise
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The KOF Employment Indicator has risen this quarter as well. The renewed increase is due to modest improvements in almost all sectors. Employment expectations for the next three months, on the other hand, are being dampened slightly.