Press Releases

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for firms in Switzerland rose in April, reaching its highest level since recovering from the financial crisis in 2010/2011. As far as developments in the near future are concerned, however, companies are more cautious than they have been in recent months. The positive impact of the Swiss economy’s recovery from the pandemic is outweighing the adverse effects of the war in Ukraine.

The Global Barometers decrease in April, likely reflecting shocks such as the war in Ukraine and the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in China. The Coincident Barometer is now below the historical mean of 100 points for the first time since February 2021. In addition, the more noticeably drop in the Leading Barometer signals the perspective of a stronger deceleration in world growth for the coming months.

The Global Economic Barometers are dropping more sharply in March. This partly reflects the normalization of the global economy at the beginning of 2022 and is largely driven by changed assessments in Asia. The coincident indicator remains relatively strong, but the distancing of the leading indicator from the historical mean of 100 points may be a first sign of a stronger deceleration than previously forecast for the coming months.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly in February and now stands at 105 points. This is still to some extent higher than the long-term average. The normalisation since the most recent peak in May 2021 is thus proceeding. The economic situation should therefore continue to develop positively.

The Swiss economy’s recovery is continuing despite the omicron wave at the beginning of the new year. This is demonstrated by the KOF Business Tendency Surveys for January. Although many employees are currently having to quarantine or self-isolate, a specially included KOF question reveals that the loss of sales due to staff absences is limited. The availability of intermediate products, on the other hand, remains a problem.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise and is at its highest level since 2000. Its further increase is mainly due to manufacturing and the wholesale sector. In the hospitality industry, on the other hand, the employment outlook has deteriorated somewhat.

The KOF Economic Barometer moved only very little in January. It increased slightly again after an even smaller decline in the previous month. This means that the barometer value has hardly changed since November. Presently, the economic outlook is above average, although the omicron wave could still have a negative impact.

The deteriorating epidemiological situation in Switzerland and throughout Europe has forced KOF to revise its economic forecast downwards. Under its baseline scenario, KOF expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 3.4 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2022. KOF is forecasting that an economic recovery will begin in the spring.

The KOF Economic Barometer moves one step further towards its long-term average shortly before the end of the year. The high-flying of the barometer, which was observed in the middle of the year, is being cushioned by a further corrective movement. However, the barometer remains above its long-term average. The prospects for the Swiss economy remain positive, given that economic activity is not impaired by a recurring spread of the virus.

Healthcare expenditure will increase by 7.3 per cent this year owing to the pandemic. The growth rate will then fall significantly to 1.3 per cent in 2022 and 1.2 per cent in 2023. These are the key findings of the KOF Healthcare Expenditure Forecast, which was prepared with the help of a research contribution from comparis.ch.

The Global Economic Barometers declined once again in November, continuing the weakening that started in the third quarter. Despite falling in all regions, the Coincident Barometer remains above 100 points. However, the Leading Barometer remains below 100 for a second consecutive month, albeit with a less pronounced decline in November.

Swiss companies’ business situation continues to improve, according to the KOF Business Tendency Surveys for October. The gap that had widened between sectors as a result of the pandemic is closing to some extent. In addition to problems with supplies of intermediate products, however, many sectors are complaining about a shortage of skilled workers.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise and is at its highest level since 2008. The renewed increase is mainly due to the larger number of companies that consider their current staffing levels to be too low. The labour market situation in the hospitality industry has improved particularly strongly.

The KOF Economic Barometer remains virtually unchanged in October. After repeated weakenings from a historically high level in the summer of this year, the Barometer has stabilised for the time being at 110.7 points. It is thus once again well above its long-term average. The prospects for the Swiss economy until the end of 2021 remain positive, given that the containment of the virus continues.

The Corona pandemic still shapes the economic situation in Germany. The German economy will reach normal capacity utilisation in the course of 2022. In their autumn report, the leading economic research institutes – amongst them the ifo Institute in cooperation with the KOF Swiss Economic Institute – forecast that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will rise by 2.4% in 2021 and by 4.8% in 2022.

In October, the Global Economic Barometers maintain the weakening tendency that started in July, reflecting the slowdown in World economic growth in the second half of 2021. The more intense fall of the Leading Barometer suggests a possible intensification of this tendency in the next three to six months.

The Swiss economy is performing well, but its rate of growth will have returned to normal by the end of 2023. Gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 3.2 per cent in 2021 and by 3.6 per cent in 2022. Output is likely to have returned to its pre-crisis growth path by 2023.

The KOF Economic Barometer declines for the fourth time in a row in September and now stands at 110.6 points. However, the Barometer remains above its long-term average. The recovery of the Swiss economy in the wake of the pandemic is thus slowing somewhat but is likely to continue in the upcoming months.

In September, the Global Economic Barometers maintain their weakening tendency that started in July, reflecting the slowdown in world economic growth in the second half of 2021. Despite the fall, the indicator levels remain high and compatible with the continuity of the current phase of recovery of the world economy.

The fall in the Global Economic Barometers in August indicates a slowdown in world economic growth rates for the second half of 2021. Despite their decline, the indicators remain at a high level consistent with the continuation of the current recovery phase in global economic activity.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator rose sharply in July. For the first time, Swiss companies’ business activity is now better than it was at the start of 2020. Survey respondents are confident about developments going forward and see fewer uncertainties than they did at the beginning of the year. This optimistic assessment by firms is consistent with KOF’s latest calculations.

The KOF Employment Indicator continues to rise in the third quarter of 2021 and is above the long-term average for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. The upswing is broadly supported: almost all sectors are recording positive employment indicators. Even in the hospitality industry, employment expectations for the next three months are now in positive territory.

In July, the KOF Economic Barometer falls further below its May peak. Despite this second decline in a row, the barometer level is clearly above the long-term average. The economy is still on a strong expansion path, although the high pace of recent months may not to be sustained.

The Global Economic Barometers fell in July, following the tendency already indicated by the Leading Global Barometer in the previous month. Despite the monthly downward development, both indicators remain at high levels, compatible with the continued phase of recovery of global economic activity in 2021. However, the current and future perspectives in the three investigated regions have cooled somewhat.

At mid-year, the KOF Economic Barometer moves a step towards its long-term average. The strong rise of the barometer across the last months is now replaced by a corrective movement. The barometer still lies well above its long-term average. The prospects for the Swiss economy remains very positive, provided that the economy is not severely affected by a renewed spread of the virus.

The recovery has arrived - faster and stronger than previously expected. According to KOF’s economic forecast, gross domestic product will rise by 4 per cent this year. KOF expects to see growth of 2.8 per cent for 2022. Switzerland's economic output should already exceed its pre-crisis level in the current quarter thanks to strong growth in value added.

Switzerland’s tourism sector is poised for a recovery this year following its pandemic-induced slump. Domestic tourists and travellers from other European countries at least will soon be returning, according to KOF’s forecast. In contrast, the prospects for any normalisation in the situation for long-distance and business travellers are bleak.

The recovery of the Swiss economy is progressing in leaps and bounds. The upward trend in the Business Situation Indicator, which has been ongoing since the beginning of the year, continued at an accelerated pace in April. Firms are also much more confident about developments over the coming months than they were in the previous month and at the beginning of this year. However, the availability of intermediate products is becoming a growing concern for companies.

The KOF Employment Indicator is climbing sharply and is now only slightly below its long-term average. This rise is being driven by more positive employment prospects: for the first time since the beginning of the COVID crisis there are more firms that plan to increase their headcount over the next three months than those that expect to cut staff.

The KOF Economic Barometer rises in April for the second month in a row by about 15 points. It thus surpasses its previous historical high, which it reached in the recovery after the financial crisis in the first months of the year 2010. Unless the virus takes another volte, economic development is likely to get a strong boost in the near future.

In April, KOF and Switzerland’s Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper surveyed economists on the subjects of state aid during the coronavirus crisis and the future of public finances. They found that there are hardly any economists who think that the debt brake should be applied very rigorously. There is also agreement among the 167 survey respondents that cuts in social security, education and research should be avoided.

The KOF Economic Barometer rose to 117.8 points in March and now is as high as it was last in summer 2010.The Barometer thus signals a rapid economic recovery for the coming months.

The euro area is poised to begin its economic recovery. In the first quarter, economic output is expected to have fallen by a further 0.4 percent compared with the previous quarter, when it shrank by 0.7 percent. This is the consensus of three research institutes: ifo in Munich, KOF in Zurich, and Istat in Rome. The second quarter is expected to see growth of 1.5 percent over the first quarter, followed by 2.2 percent in the third.

Coronavirus will continue to set the tone for economic activity around the world, across Europe and in Switzerland this year. According to the KOF Economic Forecast, the economy in Switzerland will gradually recover and return to its pre-crisis levels in the third quarter. Under its baseline scenario KOF expects gross domestic product to grow by 3.0 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent next year.

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is being felt across all social strata. However, low-income households are suffering particularly as a result of the coronavirus crisis, while those on high incomes are still managing comparatively well. These are the findings of a recent KOF study.

Having risen at the end of 2020, the KOF Business Situation Indicator fell in January. The second wave of the pandemic is clearly acting as a drag on some sectors. The proportion of companies that consider their survival to be at risk increases strongly in the hospitality sector. More than half of businesses in the hospitality industry are worried about possible bankruptcy. KOF expects to see a GDP growth of 2.1 per cent this year but no return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2021.

The KOF Employment Indicator has fallen to minus 8.2 points, which has ended its recovery trend of the last two quarters. The outlook has deteriorated in the hospitality industry in particular: the employment indicator for this sector is even more negative than it was during the first lockdown and has hit an all-time low.

The KOF Economic Barometer drops considerably in January. For the first time since July last year, it falls below its long-term average. After reaching an interim pandemic high in September, COVID-19 is now weighing more heavily on the economy again. The pandemic is causing gloomy economic prospects at the beginning of the year.

The KOF Economic Barometer remains virtually unchanged at the end of the year. The sharp declines that the barometer underwent in early 2020 have been offset by a rapid recovery during the summer. The barometer already reached a value above its long-term average again in August and was able to maintain this level during the second half of the year. However, the prospects for the Swiss economy remain subdued at the beginning of 2021 due to the ongoing pandemic.

KOF expects GDP to fall by 3.5 per cent this year (baseline scenario). For 2021 and 2022 it expects to see growth of 3.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively. The second wave of the pandemic is placing a strain on the labour market. Employment is likely to stagnate in the winter half-year, and historically low wage increases are expected for the next two years. The number of companies that believe their survival is at risk has risen again.

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers show a deceleration in the rate of recovery of world economic activity in December, reflecting the arrival of a second wave of COVID-19 in various countries. The Coincident Barometer interrupts its sequence of increases. The Leading Barometer, which showed optimism in the previous months, is moving towards its long-term average.

The KOF Economic Barometer declines in November for the second time in a row, after a brief recovery in the summer. The barometer currently stands at 103.5 points, 2.8 points lower than in October (revised from 106.6 to 106.3 points). The barometer is thus moving towards its long-term average, which means that the outlook for the Swiss economy remains subdued also in view of the current pandemic situation.

Healthcare expenditure will increase by 3.1 per cent in 2020, slightly less than last year (3.4 per cent). Expenditure is expected to increase more sharply in the next two years. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer services were provided in certain areas of healthcare. These are the findings of the KOF Healthcare Expenditure Forecast, which has been produced with the help of research funding from comparis.ch.

The KOF Employment Indicator is continuing to recover following its historic slump in the second quarter of 2020. However, the Indicator remains firmly in negative territory at minus 7.1 points. Businesses in the hospitality, wholesale and industrial sectors are especially pessimistic.

The KOF Economic Barometer falls in October for the first time after a brief recovery phase. It now stands at 106.6 points, 3.5 points lower than in September (revised from 113.8 to 110.1 points). The economic outlook for Switzerland is subdued in view of the pandemic situation and the restrictions that are likely to result from it.

Although the situation in the tourism industry has improved since the summer, this sector is now facing severe headwinds again. KOF expects around one-third fewer European guests to come to Switzerland in the winter season than last year. Tourists from overseas markets will mainly stay away. The total number of overnight stays is likely to fall by 30 per cent this winter. The sector is expected to suffer a loss of more than 10 billion Swiss francs for the 2020 tourism year as a whole.

The easing of the pandemic situation in the summer improved the outlook for economic activity. However, the rising number of new infections has heightened uncertainty again. KOF has therefore constructed two scenarios for the economy going forward. Under its baseline scenario it expects GDP to contract by 3.6 per cent this year (2021: growth of 3.2 per cent). If the pandemic situation continues to deteriorate, however, GDP is forecast to fall by 4.9 per cent (2021: growth of 1.5 per cent).

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers move in opposite directions in October. The Coincident Barometer maintains a rising tendency, albeit at a clearly slower pace than in the previous months. Despite its decline, the Leading Barometer continues to show a recovery in global GDP. The slowdown, respectively decline in the indicators suggest that after a first strong rebound, the pace of recovery is to weaken.

The KOF economic barometer rose in September for the fourth time in a row after a historic drop in spring this year. A comparable value of the barometer can last be observed at the end of the financial crisis in 2009/2010. At present, the economy is taking a V-shaped course, so that a recovery of the Swiss economy can be expected for the time being. However, a second wave of COVID-19 cases could lead to a sharp revision of this assessment.

The  Global Economic Barometers maintain their upward tendencies that began in May, after historic lows in April. The Coincident Barometer has reduced its upward pace and still reflects economic activity levels well below those before the Covid-19 pandemic. The Leading Barometer, on the other hand, reaches its highest level since 2010, signalling continued optimism regarding upcoming world GDP developments. Given the high levels of uncertainty, this should be interpreted with caution.

The KOF economic barometer rose sharply in August, now for the third month in a row. The plus was almost the same as in the previous month, when the barometer showed the strongest monthly increase since the beginning of the calculated values in the early 1990s. The crash in the spring of this year was, however, also the worst in the history of the barometer. According to this, the Swiss economy is in the upswing phase of what appears for the time being a V-shaped recession.

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers are rising in August, sustaining the tendency towards a world economic rebound. While the Coincident Barometer continues to gradually move away from the trough of the crisis, the Leading Barometer has advanced faster, signalling confidence for the recovery of world GDP in the coming months. This result should be interpreted cautiously given the high degree of uncertainty on both the economic and health fronts.

Between March and July of this year, 21 per cent fewer companies in Switzerland went bankrupt than in the same period of last year. The support measures taken during the coronavirus crisis are likely to play an important role in this regard. It is still too early to sound the all-clear, however, as some bankruptcies have probably only been postponed. Bankruptcies have tended to increase gradually after previous economic crises as well.

The business situation in most sectors has improved slightly. This is shown by the KOF Business Situation Indicator, which has risen significantly for the first time since April. However, the situation remains challenging. 14 per cent of companies believe that their survival is at risk. In terms of economic performance, KOF expects GDP to decline by 4.9 per cent this year. If a second wave of COVID-19 were to occur, GDP would be expected to fall by 6 per cent this year.

In the third quarter of 2020 the KOF Employment Indicator is recovering slightly from its historic slump in the second quarter. Despite the lifting of the lockdown, however, the indicator remains clearly in negative territory at -12.9 points. In industry and the hospitality sector the outlook is almost as bad as it was three months ago. Further job cuts are expected in the coming months.

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers have risen for the second consecutive month in July, indicating a gradual recovery of the world economy. Although the numbers have begun moving away from the trough of the crisis, further developments remain uncertain, both on the economic and the health front.

Economic output in the euro area suffered a sharp plunge in the second quarter, which is now being followed by a slower recovery. This is the expectation of the ifo Institute in Munich and KOF in Zurich in their Eurozone Economic Outlook (EZEO). The overall forecast is uncertain because nobody knows how the coronavirus pandemic will continue, how companies’ liquidity situations will develop, and how consumers will behave.

The KOF Economic Barometer increases significantly in June. After the sharp declines of the last three months, the barometer is thus rising again for the first time. However, with a value comparable to April, the barometer is still considerably below its long-term average. As a result, the prospects of the Swiss economy are very subdued, but brightening up somewhat compared to the previous months.

Due to the coronavirus crisis, a pronounced weakness in investment is becoming increasingly apparent, making it difficult to return to strong economic activity. The ETH researchers Hans Gersbach, Heiner Mikosch and Jan-Egbert Sturm therefore propose to extent the COVID-19 lending programme, focusing on investment and gradually reducing government guarantees. This can accelerate the economic recovery without placing a heavy burden on the public finances.

A special survey shows that a large proportion of Swiss companies are expecting a decline in total sales in 2020 due to the corona crisis. However, the KOF expects the economy in Switzerland to recover more quickly than in neighbouring countries. This year, GDP will fall by 5.1 per cent. The KOF is thus leaving its May forecast for 2020 virtually unchanged.

Following a succession of decreases that drove the Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers down to their lowest level in history last month, the indicators are showing the first signs of recuperation since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. There remains a great uncertainty, but the modest movement of June may signal that the world economy is entering a phase of gradual recovery.  

In May, the KOF Economic Barometer reaches the lowest value in its history. After the exceptionally strong decline in April, the Barometer falls again, but at 6.5 points, the minus is much smaller than in the previous month. The rapid decrease of the last three months is more pronounced than, for example, during the financial crisis in 2008/2009. The Swiss economy is in a sharp recession.

The absence of visitors from abroad will not be compensated for by domestic tourists in summer. Towns and cities must expect 50 per cent fewer overnight stays in the summer months, while the Alpine region is set to see a decrease of 20 to 30 per cent. During the entire 2020 tourism year the number of overnight stays is likely to fall by more than 30 per cent compared with last year. The hotel sector will lose more than CHF 900 million in value added.

Economic activity should bounce back in the summer once the current lockdown restrictions are eased. Nevertheless, KOF expects value added to decline by a significant 5.5 per cent for 2020 as a whole. GDP growth should then rebound to 5.4 per cent in 2021. Spending on social security will rise sharply this year. At the same time, the federal government, municipalities and cantons must expect tax revenues to fall by a total of more than CHF 25 billion this year and the next years.

The Coincident and Leading Barometers for the Global Economy for May demonstrate a deepening of the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. After the third and so far most significant of these three declines, the two indicators reached the lowest levels of their respective series since their beginning in 1991. This signals an unprecedented impact of the pandemic on World GDP for the second quarter of 2020.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator fell extraordinarily sharply in April. In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, companies reckon that their business is faring even worse than during the 2009 financial crisis, and they expect this situation to deteriorate further in the coming months. The coronavirus continues to have the economy firmly in its grip.

Short-term prospects on the Swiss labour market have deteriorated sharply as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The KOF Employment Indicator has fallen to -19.9 points and is currently lower than at the height of the financial and economic crisis in 2008/2009. With the exception of the insurance industry, all sectors are affected by this decline.

Little is yet known about the effects of the coronavirus crisis on the self-employed. A survey conducted by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute and the University of Lausanne among 1,000 self-employed individuals and business owners shows that the lockdown has in some cases led to massive sales losses and mental health problems. Self-employed people who have had to close down their businesses report a sharp drop in household income and thus fear for their financial survival.

The KOF Economic Barometer declines in April more than ever before in its history. Within a very short period of time, it thus drops to a level (63.5 points) comparable to the 2009 financial crisis. Only in the first three months of 2009 the barometer values were still slightly lower than at present. The Swiss economy is in crisis mode.

In the April 2020 edition, the Global Leading Barometer and the Global Coincident Barometer have fallen sharply, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy. The second consecutive decrease in the two barometers shows that the economies of all regions were seriously shaken by the pandemic.

Using four scenarios, KOF has calculated the short-term economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the most positive scenario, Switzerland must expect to lose CHF 22 billion in value added between March and June. In the most negative scenario, this loss rises to 35 billion francs. The high costs are largely driven by international developments.

The Swiss government has taken initial measures to cushion the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. However, companies will still have to bear costs such as rent, leases or interest payments. These capital costs are not covered by the current package. They should be partially reimbursed to companies through existing channels. This is what ETH professors Hans Gersbach and Jan-Egbert Sturm are proposing.

The reading of the KOF Economic Barometer dropped drastically in March and is now with 92.9 well below its long-term average. Accordingly, the Swiss economy can be expected to see a marked decline in growth rates in the near future. This plunge of the Barometer reflects the first economic consequences of the accelerated spread of the Coronavirus.

The battle to contain the coronavirus pandemic is posing significant challenges for the economy. Economic forecasts are subject to huge uncertainty. KOF is therefore presenting three scenarios that show how business activity could evolve going forward. The baseline scenario sees the Swiss economy sliding into recession in the first half of 2020. Under the mild scenario the disruption to business activity would abate more quickly, while in the negative scenario it would be much more severe.

The two Global Economic Barometers show how much the coronavirus epidemic has already impacted the prospects for the global economy. Both the Leading Barometer for global economic development and the Coincident Barometer are declining sharply. These are the lowest values for both Barometers designed by KOF and FGV since 2009.