Editions

How did the Swiss fare during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data from Dargebotene Hand and Swisscom, analysis conducted by Marc Anderes and Stefan Pichler shows that calls to the Dargebotene Hand helpline increased significantly just after the outbreak of the pandemic.

Martin Wörter and Mathias Beck are examining the digital transformation as part of a research project funded by the National Research Programme (NRP). In this interview the two innovation economists explain why the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated computerisation and why Europe is still lagging behind the United States in terms of technology.

The coronavirus pandemic has clearly left its mark on Switzerland’s innovation landscape. More than a quarter of the firms surveyed by KOF have had to adapt their innovation processes significantly or even very significantly owing to the COVID-19 crisis. SMEs, start-ups and multinational corporations have been hit particularly hard. Just under half of these companies report that COVID-19 has meant a reduction in R&D and innovation investment and a decline in innovation collaborations.

KOF labour market expert Michael Siegenthaler talks about the winners and losers of the COVID-​19 pandemic and discusses the outlook for wages and employment once the crisis has subsided.

At the height of the coronavirus crisis, 1.35 million individuals in Switzerland were working short time. A recent special study by KOF looks at how those on short-​time working used their extra free time in 2020.

Prices have risen recently in both the United States and Europe. But much of this price increase can be explained by the COVID-19 pandemic and is therefore likely to be only temporary.

With the financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis the world has experienced two severe economic crises within just over a decade. An analysis of the causes, evolution and consequences of these two economic crashes shows that the two crises could hardly be more different.

In the fight against the pandemic, countries are relying on non-pharmaceutical containment measures. In Switzerland, these have led to a decline in new infections. In addition, the population is helping by making voluntary adjustments to their behaviour.

The coronavirus crisis caused investment activity in the first year of the pandemic to fall less sharply than firms had originally feared. This is shown by the results of the semi-annual investment survey conducted in spring 2021. Investment is now expected to grow by a nominal 7 per cent in the current year. The increased proportion of companies that plan to pursue expansion investment is a sign of positive demand stimulus, especially in industry and among service providers.

While the decline in demand is constraining fewer and fewer companies, the availability of goods, inputs and supplies is now one of the most important restrictions. Among wholesalers, for example, about half of all businesses are affected.

Far fewer companies went bankrupt last year than would have been expected in normal times. This is due to the legal and economic support measures introduced. A sudden wave of bankruptcies is still not expected.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator rose in December after suffering a setback in November (see G 11). Despite the second wave of the pandemic in Switzerland and neighbouring countries, companies started December on a fairly positive note. The situation is nowhere near as tough as in the spring. However, the latest tightening of restrictions and the news about a new coronavirus variant are not included in these survey results.

The epidemiological situation has deteriorated further in many countries, including across Europe, which is important for Swiss exporters. Although vaccination campaigns are now under way, restrictions are likely to remain in place in many areas. It will therefore be some time before the global economy recovers from the coronavirus crisis, the aftermath of which is likely to be felt for quite a while.

Federalism in a crisis: the theme of the next ‘KOF Beyond Borders’ event is hidden in the pun. How are various federalist states doing in combating the pandemic and its consequences? Does this crisis also reveal a crisis of federalism?

Following a sharp rise in the number of infections in the autumn, the Swiss government and the cantons have taken further measures to combat the pandemic. Both factors are likely to have contributed to the fact that Swiss people have again adjusted their consumption. This also affects the measurement of inflation, albeit not as much as during the lockdown in spring. This is illustrated by an updated comparison of the national consumer price index (LIK) with an alternative COVID price index.

The Christmas trade is of great importance for the retail sector. November and, even more so, December are usually the months that generate the highest sales of the year. KOF has therefore taken the pulse of the retail sector. Following a swift recovery in Switzerland and neighbouring countries after the slump in spring, confidence in November fell only slightly in Switzerland but plummeted in Austria.

Social distancing is key to the containment of the coronavirus pandemic. The mobility of the population provides important indications of whether the relevant measures and recommendations are being followed. Analysis of mobility data in Switzerland shows clear differences between the first and second waves. In addition, there are indications that mobility and infection rates influence each other.

The number of international tourist arrivals in the first eight months of this year was 70 per cent lower than it had been before the coronavirus crisis. Although demand in Europe partially recovered during the summer months, rising infection rates are slowing down this recovery. However, Switzerland is not in a bad position when compared internationally: thanks to the strength of its domestic tourism, it has lost fewer overnight stays than other countries.

The coronavirus-specific questions asked in the October Business Tendency Surveys revealed that around 10 per cent of the firms surveyed said that they considered their survival to be at risk. In the hospitality industry this figure is as high as one in three companies, which is also where the pandemic will have the greatest impact on annual sales. In general, smaller firms are more afraid of bankruptcy than larger ones, and there are also regional differences.

Climate change used to dominate the debate – until COVID-19 began to spread. Does the coronavirus crisis eclipse the climate crisis? Or is it indirectly creating a greener economy? This is what we will be discussing at the next KOF Prognosetagung on 22 October, with Swiss Airlines CEO Thomas Klühr, Microsoft Switzerland Director Marianne Janik, Swiss Re expert Nora Ernst, environmental scientist and Green National Councillor Bastien Girod and KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm.

Business in the retail sector improved considerably in July. The results of the KOF Business Tendency Surveys show that the situation is now as satisfactory as it was before the pandemic. Were the events of this spring just a brief aberration for the retail sector?

The coronavirus crisis substantially changed consumer behaviour during the lockdown. This can lead to a situation where the prices of consumed goods over time differ significantly from those in Switzerland’s national consumer price index (LIK). In order to estimate these differences, KOF has linked the official LIK data with card transaction data and constructed an alternative COVID price index. This suggests that inflation has been underestimated since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis.

In order to mitigate the consequences of the coronavirus crisis for the self-employed and businesses, Switzerland has relied on three instruments: short-time working, income support for the self-employed, and so-called ‘COVID-19 loans’. Researchers have investigated which firms have made the most use of these instruments. One of their findings is that companies that were already in debt before the crisis have made particularly frequent use of COVID-19 loans.

The KOF Business Tendency Surveys have revealed that Swiss companies’ fortunes hardly changed in June. KOF’s Business Situation Indicator thus confirms the stabilisation trends prevailing in the Swiss economy. The virus-induced economic freefall had already ended in the previous month. The retail sector in particular showed signs of life again in June. The Swiss economy is likely to have bottomed out for the time being.

KOF has been publishing coincident and leading composite indicators for the global economy every month since January. The two Global Economic Barometers provide timely and highly frequent information. The algorithm used to construct the two barometers is run from the beginning each time. This guarantees the flexibility of the barometer system. At the current edge, the barometers have been quick to identify the economic slump that has accompanied the spread of the coronavirus.

Unemployment in Switzerland surged in the first half of the year as a result of the coronavirus crisis. Nevertheless, Switzerland has so far got off relatively lightly by international standards. Unemployment in Switzerland has risen less sharply than in the UK or Canada, for example, but slightly more than in Sweden or Germany. The example of Sweden shows that the crisis has hit the labour market hard even in cases where the authorities have not ordered a lockdown.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator regained some ground in May after having crashed in the previous month: the indicator is rising very modestly (Graph G 10). Nevertheless, Swiss companies reckon that their current situation is significantly worse than it was during the 2009 financial crisis. Although the Swiss economy is still in recession, it is no longer in freefall.

The business situation in the Swiss construction sector deteriorated sharply in April. Construction site closures in parts of Switzerland and hygiene regulations are delaying ongoing construction projects. KOF expects construction investment to decline by 2.0 per cent in real terms in 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the measures being taken by the government to mitigate its health consequences are affecting many companies in Switzerland. In order to obtain a timely and comprehensive overview of this impact, Swiss companies’ websites are regularly checked for the use of relevant terms, and these findings are then broken down by company size, sector and location.

The KOF Investment Survey estimates the causal effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the investment activity of Swiss companies. According to this survey, Swiss companies have scaled back their plans to invest in equipment during the current year by 7.3 percentage points and have reduced their plans to invest in research and development by 14.9 percentage points. This has far-reaching consequences for the further course of the recession and the dynamics of the subsequent economic recovery.

The fight against the COVID-19 pandemic is causing severe distortions in goods, labour and capital markets. However, it takes several weeks or even months for the reality to reach official statistics and econometric models. In the US, important basic statistics are published earlier and in more detail than in many other countries. The first available indicators for March confirm scenario calculations that predicted a sharp recession.

The measures taken to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic also aim to reduce social interaction. What influence do these measures have on the mobility behaviour of the Swiss? KOF researchers have developed an indicator that constantly shows this. According to the indicator, mobility has continued to increase in recent days, having reached its lowest level at the end of March. However, it is still far from its normal state.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator fell significantly in March, plunging to its lowest level since spring 2017. Companies are particularly concerned about developments in the near future: demand forecasts are being cut sharply in all of the sectors surveyed. The coronavirus pandemic is casting its shadow over the Swiss economy.