Press Releases

The Leading Global Barometer rises in April, partially offsetting the substantial decline of the previous month to remain close to the neutral level of 100 points. The Coincident Barometer falls slightly this month, confirming that it peaked in January before pointing to a subsequent phase of rather sluggish global economic activity.

In March 2024, the Leading Global Barometer records a setback, and the Coincident Barometer rises slightly after a fall in the previous month. The results reflect a sluggish development of global economic activity in the first quarter of 2024 and suggest that this will only improve slowly in the coming months.

After seven consecutive months of increases, the Global Barometers decline in February. The Coincident Barometer remains below average, while the Leading Barometer remains above average. This decline is a warning that the recovery process is fragile.

The Global Barometers continue to increase, signalling an acceleration in world economic growth at the turn of the year. However, despite the seventh consecutive rise, the Coincident Barometer remains below its average of 100 points. The Leading Barometer reaches its highest level since 2021.

The Global Barometers recorded their sixth consecutive increase, ending the year at a higher level than 12 months ago. The results signal that the recovery in global growth is continuing, albeit at a slow pace. The Coincident Barometer remains below 100 points, while the Leading Barometer has already established itself at a level above neutral.

Both Global Barometers improve in November. The Leading Global Barometer points to an acceleration in world economic growth in the three to six months ahead. The Coincident Barometer is rising despite the monetary tightening in several countries, but it remains below its historical average.

The Leading Global Barometer rises for the fourth month in a row, moving more clearly into the over 100 points range, suggesting an above average acceleration in world economic growth over the next three to six months. The slight decline in the Coincident Barometer shows that this framework is likely to be reached gradually.

The Global Barometers rise in all regions for the third consecutive month in September. Although still below average, the Coincident Barometer shows some improvement in overall economic conditions, while the Leading Barometer reaches its historical average of 100 points.

In August, the Global Barometers increase for the second month in a row across the regions. The Coincident Barometer continues to slowly improve in 2023 while the Leading Barometer advances more rapidly, approaching almost the neutral level of 100 points.  

The Global Barometers increase slightly this month, oscillating in the below-average range. This reflects the difficulties in the recovery process of world economic activity in 2023. This month’s increase occurred in all three regions analysed.

After two months of relative stability, the Global Barometers weakened in June, reflecting the challenging recovery of the world economic activity in 2023. The decline was influenced by the deterioration of the economic environment in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and in Europe.

The Global Barometers rise only slightly in May, reflecting continued weakness in global economic activity in most countries and moderate optimism, partly related to the gradual recovery of the Chinese economy.

The levels of the Global Barometers remained almost unchanged in April, halting the recovery tendency observed earlier this year.  The result was mainly influenced by the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, where the indicators retreated after two noticeably rises.

The Global Barometers rise for the second consecutive month in March 2023, fueled by the favorable evolution in the economic environment of the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.

The Global Barometers increase in February for the first time since November 2022 across all regions, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa region standing out for the improved climate in the region.

The Global Barometers continue to signal a pronounced world economic slowdown at the beginning of 2023. Both indicators record a fall for the month and reach levels which – excluding the worst period of the COVID-19 crisis – have not been seen since 2009. The latest results are particularly depressed by developments of the indicators in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.

The Global Barometers continue to signal a clear world economic slowdown at the end of 2022. After a second successive fall, both indicators reach levels which – apart from the worst period of the COVID-19 crisis – have not been seen since the financial crisis in 2008/2009.

The Global Barometers fall once again in November after a slight improvement in the previous month. With the results, the Coincident Barometer reaches its lowest level since August 2020 and the Leading Barometer is the second lowest since June 2020, beating only the level of last August.

The Coincident Barometer rises after eight consecutive falls and the Leading Barometer increases for the second month in a row. Because the improvement is only modest, the level of the indicators continues to reflect an adverse scenario for world economic growth in the coming months.

The Global Barometers move in opposite directions in September. The Coincident Barometer falls for the eighth consecutive month while the Leading Barometer increases, but continues to fluctuate at a low level, signaling continued pessimism in the global economic growth perspective for the coming months.

The Global Barometers fall once again in August, signalling a slowdown in world growth for this quarter. The Coincident Barometer decreases for the seventh month in a row, while the Leading Barometer drops again after remaining stable in the previous month. The results reflect a bleak perspective for world economic growth in the coming months.

The Global Barometers overall continue to signal a strong deceleration in world economic growth in 2022. In July, the Coincident Barometer declines for the sixth consecutive month, while the Leading Barometer continues to be 10 points below the historical mean of 100 points. The results reflect a gloomy outlook for global economic growth in the coming months.

In June, the Global Barometers are quite stable, following noticeable falls in the two previous months. The Coincident Barometer rises a little and sustains a level compatible with moderate growth of the world economy in the second quarter. However, the current stability of the Leading Barometer continues to reflect a skeptical outlook for global economic growth in the months ahead.

The Global Barometers fall for the second consecutive month, reflecting negative factors such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, the COVID-19 responses in China and the worldwide very high inflation. The Coincident Barometer remains below the historical mean of 100 points, while the Leading Barometer drops further from the mean, reflecting the increased risk of a more pronounced slowdown in several countries.

The Global Barometers decrease in April, likely reflecting shocks such as the war in Ukraine and the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in China. The Coincident Barometer is now below the historical mean of 100 points for the first time since February 2021. In addition, the more noticeably drop in the Leading Barometer signals the perspective of a stronger deceleration in world growth for the coming months.

The Global Economic Barometers are dropping more sharply in March. This partly reflects the normalization of the global economy at the beginning of 2022 and is largely driven by changed assessments in Asia. The coincident indicator remains relatively strong, but the distancing of the leading indicator from the historical mean of 100 points may be a first sign of a stronger deceleration than previously forecast for the coming months.

The Global Barometers fall slightly in February consolidating the baseline reached since December 2021. Back then, the indices rose following five months of significant losses. The coincident indicator signals a still above average pace for the global economy in the first months of 2022. The leading indicator indicates a continuing normalisation.

After declining throughout most of the second semester of 2021, the Global Economic Barometers rise in January for the second consecutive month. The Coincident Barometer remains above the historical mean, while the Leading Barometer returns to the neutral range of 100 points.

After a noticeable drop during the second semester of 2021, the Global Economic Barometers remain relatively stable in December compared to the previous month. The Coincident Barometer discontinues a sequence of decreases that began in July, while the Leading Barometer records its seventh successive, albeit modest, decrease, thereby remaining below its long-run average of 100 points and exposing the difficulties in maintaining the rate of recovery of the world economy.

The Global Economic Barometers declined once again in November, continuing the weakening that started in the third quarter. Despite falling in all regions, the Coincident Barometer remains above 100 points. However, the Leading Barometer remains below 100 for a second consecutive month, albeit with a less pronounced decline in November.

In October, the Global Economic Barometers maintain the weakening tendency that started in July, reflecting the slowdown in World economic growth in the second half of 2021. The more intense fall of the Leading Barometer suggests a possible intensification of this tendency in the next three to six months.

In September, the Global Economic Barometers maintain their weakening tendency that started in July, reflecting the slowdown in world economic growth in the second half of 2021. Despite the fall, the indicator levels remain high and compatible with the continuity of the current phase of recovery of the world economy.

The fall in the Global Economic Barometers in August indicates a slowdown in world economic growth rates for the second half of 2021. Despite their decline, the indicators remain at a high level consistent with the continuation of the current recovery phase in global economic activity.

The Global Economic Barometers fell in July, following the tendency already indicated by the Leading Global Barometer in the previous month. Despite the monthly downward development, both indicators remain at high levels, compatible with the continued phase of recovery of global economic activity in 2021. However, the current and future perspectives in the three investigated regions have cooled somewhat.

The Coincident Global Barometer keeps the upward tendency and reaches its highest historical level in June. Moving in the opposite direction the Leading Barometer decreases, but after having risen markedly in the three previous months.

The Global Economic Barometers increase considerably in May for the third month in a row, signaling an acceleration in the global economic activity since the first quarter of 2021. All investigated regions improve both their assessment of the current situation and expectations for the near future.

The Global Economic Barometers increase markedly for the second successive month. This reflects, among other things, the progress in vaccination programs against COVID-19 in various countries and thus the perspective of accelerating the level of global activity in the coming months. This month, all investigated regions improve both their current assessment of the situation and their expectations for the near future.

The Global Economic Barometers increase considerably in March, also reflecting the initial success in vaccination programs in some countries and optimism regarding the possibility of achieving control over the pandemic in the coming months. However, the results are still heterogeneous among regions.

The February Global Economic Barometer results reflect the uncertainty of the rate of recovery of global economic activity in the first half of 2021 and the noticeable heterogeneity between the regions. The Coincident Barometer increases with less intensity than in the previous month, while the Leading Barometer is moving towards the approximately neutral level.

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers rise in January, signaling a continued recovery of global economic activity. The increase in the Coincident Barometer is small and reverses the fall in the previous month. The Leading Barometer increases more noticeably, once again reflecting optimism, which may now be driven by the beginning of vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 in various countries.

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers show a deceleration in the rate of recovery of world economic activity in December, reflecting the arrival of a second wave of COVID-19 in various countries. The Coincident Barometer interrupts its sequence of increases. The Leading Barometer, which showed optimism in the previous months, is moving towards its long-term average.

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers rise in November, signaling continuity in the tendency of recovery in world economic activity, after having given slightly less positive signals in the previous month. The favorable overall development was mainly driven by the Asia, Pacific and Africa regions. 

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers move in opposite directions in October. The Coincident Barometer maintains a rising tendency, albeit at a clearly slower pace than in the previous months. Despite its decline, the Leading Barometer continues to show a recovery in global GDP. The slowdown, respectively decline in the indicators suggest that after a first strong rebound, the pace of recovery is to weaken.

The  Global Economic Barometers maintain their upward tendencies that began in May, after historic lows in April. The Coincident Barometer has reduced its upward pace and still reflects economic activity levels well below those before the Covid-19 pandemic. The Leading Barometer, on the other hand, reaches its highest level since 2010, signalling continued optimism regarding upcoming world GDP developments. Given the high levels of uncertainty, this should be interpreted with caution.

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers are rising in August, sustaining the tendency towards a world economic rebound. While the Coincident Barometer continues to gradually move away from the trough of the crisis, the Leading Barometer has advanced faster, signalling confidence for the recovery of world GDP in the coming months. This result should be interpreted cautiously given the high degree of uncertainty on both the economic and health fronts.

The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers have risen for the second consecutive month in July, indicating a gradual recovery of the world economy. Although the numbers have begun moving away from the trough of the crisis, further developments remain uncertain, both on the economic and the health front.

Following a succession of decreases that drove the Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers down to their lowest level in history last month, the indicators are showing the first signs of recuperation since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. There remains a great uncertainty, but the modest movement of June may signal that the world economy is entering a phase of gradual recovery.  

The Coincident and Leading Barometers for the Global Economy for May demonstrate a deepening of the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. After the third and so far most significant of these three declines, the two indicators reached the lowest levels of their respective series since their beginning in 1991. This signals an unprecedented impact of the pandemic on World GDP for the second quarter of 2020.

In the April 2020 edition, the Global Leading Barometer and the Global Coincident Barometer have fallen sharply, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy. The second consecutive decrease in the two barometers shows that the economies of all regions were seriously shaken by the pandemic.

The two Global Economic Barometers show how much the coronavirus epidemic has already impacted the prospects for the global economy. Both the Leading Barometer for global economic development and the Coincident Barometer are declining sharply. These are the lowest values for both Barometers designed by KOF and FGV since 2009.