Press Releases

The United States’ erratic trade policy has caused even more economic uncertainty in the second quarter of 2025. Tariffs are also weighing on the economic outlook. Data revisions last year mean that KOF is sticking to its forecast of real, sport-adjusted GDP growth of 1.4 per cent for 2025 (1.0 per cent unadjusted) despite a deterioration in its assessment. Its GDP growth forecast for 2026, however, has been lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 1.5 per cent (1.9 per cent unadjusted).

The Coincident and Leading Barometers rise slightly in June, breaking a sequence of three consecutive declines. However, the outlook for global economic growth remains lower in the first half of the year than expected at the beginning of the year.

The KOF MPC figure for 5 June 2025 is -0.12. At today’s meeting, the ECB’s Governing Council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates.

The KOF Economic Barometer increases in May. After decreasing in the previous month, it remains below its medium-term average. Despite the rise in the KOF Economic Barometer, the outlook for the Swiss Economy remains subdued.

The Coincident and Leading Barometers decrease for the third consecutive month. This time more markedly, reflecting rising uncertainty due to escalating trade tensions and the prospect of slower growth in several regions.

The KOF Business Situation Indicator for the private sector in Switzerland, which is calculated based on KOF’s Business Tendency Surveys, fell again in April, recording its third consecutive decline. Firms’ business expectations for the next six months show a similar pattern: forecasts are being adjusted downwards for the third month in a row.